PVC: The futures price wound around the middle track and closed at the negative cross star, significantly reducing positions, and sorting out the spot market range

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December 11, 2023, 4:47 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 11 V2401 contract opening price: 5845, highest price: 5876, lowest price: 5786, position: 549383, settlement price: 5830, yesterday settlement: 5792, up: 38, daily trading volume: 551330 lots, precipitated capital: 2.242 billion, capital outflow: 150 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.8	Price 12.11	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5650	5610-5650	30/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5680-5760	5680-5760	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5780-5820	5780-5820	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5700	5550-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5690-5710	5690-5710	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5680	5550-5680	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range is mainly sorted out, and prices in various regions are adjusted flexibly. Compared with the valuation, North China has increased by 30 yuan per ton, while East China, South China, Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, individual enterprises slightly increase 50 yuan / ton, the first generation of contracts signed in the first generation of the week not many merchants wait and see. According to the narrow range of futures, the price offer of traders in various regions has changed little compared with last Friday, and the spot market low price has decreased. Both the overall market point price offer and the one-mouth price offer are available, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(210-260-320), South China 05 contract-(150-180), North 05 contract-(530), Southwest 05 contract-(260). Point price supply temporarily has no price advantage and poor shipping, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the early low price period downstream appropriate replenishment, Monday market trading is not active.

From a futures point of view: the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened slightly higher on Friday night and then gave up gains. Futures prices continued to weaken after the start of early trading on Monday, with a low of 5786 starting to fluctuate. The price rose slightly in the afternoon, but not by much. 2401 contracts range from 5786 to 5876 throughout the day, with a price difference of 90,01.The contract has reduced its position by 36413 hands and has held 549383 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6007, with 401308 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the futures price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract as a whole around the middle track, closed with a negative column cross star, the 2401 contract continued to significantly reduce positions, changing positions for the arrival of the month, but the corresponding 01 reduced positions were not synchronously moved into the 05 contract, part of the funds left the market. Although the operating high point of the futures price formed a certain breakthrough on the basis of last Friday, but it closed at a low level at the end of the day, it can also be seen that the current market is running in the market of reducing positions and leaving the market, lack of certain clear guidance. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrowed, and the rebound formed by the operation of the futures price from the low point led to the emergence of this trend, and the two lines of MACD at the daily level crossed. On the whole, the operation of futures prices may still be relatively narrow in the short term, continue to observe the pressure performance in the direction of 01 contract 5900 and 05 contract 6050.

Spot aspect: early week spot market operation is relatively light, most merchants feedback shipments are not smooth, futures price fluctuations temporarily can not boost the spot market, coupled with the early downstream appropriate replenishment, which also caused the current prices of the two cities in a small rebound in the transaction has weakened. The current supply and demand level variables are still unable to stimulate the prices of the two cities, and the operating rate at the supply level has increased slightly, which further aggravates the pressure of spot digestion in the face of weak demand. There is no obvious volume on the demand side, and the inquiry enthusiasm of the recent export side has also decreased after the price rise. on the whole, the current factors in the two cities are not enough to support the sustained rise in prices. On the outer side, doubts about voluntary production cuts and concerns about future demand have pushed the price of crude oil to a six-month low. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market or the stage range after the rebound began to sort out.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.8	Price 12.11	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5833	5830	-3
	Average spot price in East China	5720	5720	0
	Average spot price in South China	5800	5800	0
	PVC2401 basis difference	-113	-110	3
	V2405 collection	6016	6007	-9
	V2401-2405 closed	-183	-177	6
	PP2401 collection	7468	7484	16
	Plastic L2401 collection	8057	8018	-39
	V--PP basis difference	-1635	-1654	-19
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2224	-2188	36

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 3.1, or 0.054%, to 5701.31 on December 11. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6009.45, up 11.49%, with a range of 0.192%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 308.14.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.8 warehouse orders	12.11 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,892	1,892	0
	Guangzhou materials	850	850	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	549	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	549	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,006	4,006	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,843	2,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,809	2,809	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,250	15,250	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,457	3,457	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		44,073	44,073	0
Total		44,073	44,073	0