Introduction: after entering November, with the gradual decline of temperature, heating systems have been started in many places, and the demand for energy is also gradually increasing. Under the premise of ensuring people's livelihood, the policy of limiting industrial gas has also been issued immediately. In this context, many sets of methanol plants from natural gas in China have also gradually reduced their burden and even stopped.

Judging from the operation of the natural gas plant, there have been negative reduction or parking operations in China since the end of October 2023. The 600000 ton methanol plant in Zhonghao, Qinghai, began to stop at the end of October and is expected to restart in March 2024. At the same time, in early November, natural gas prices in southwest China began to rise. With the increase in raw material prices, the profits of some enterprises in the region have been further compressed, basically close to the cost line. Under the influence of the increasing cost pressure, there are also negative reduction or parking operations on the site. According to Tuduoduo data, the total production capacity of the parking device caused by gas restriction in 2023 is about 3.57 million tons, and the estimated daily maintenance loss is about 10650 tons. Among them, the 400000-ton plant in Sichuan Lutianhua stopped on November 7, and there was no start-up plan for the year. The 770000-ton methanol plant of Chuanwei Chemical Industry was shut down one after another on December 5 and is scheduled to resume operation at the end of January 2024; the 100000-ton plant of Liuhua in Gansu Province will be shut down by the end of October 2023 and is expected to stop until March 2024; Jiangyou Wanli 150000-ton plant will stop on December 1 and plan to restart at the beginning of March 2024 Methanol plants such as 500000 tons of Jiuyuan Chemical, 850000 tons of Cabelle and 200000 tons of Sichuan Wanhua all plan to stop for overhaul around mid-December, when the supply in the area may continue to decrease. According to Tuduo data monitoring, as of December 7, the start of construction in the southwest region has been reduced to 47.81%, which is 1.21% lower than last week. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the operation of the plant in the field.

At present, with the steady progress of the gas restriction policy, the devices in the region are also gradually stopped, and under the support of little supply pressure, the market price remains high, but considering that the follow-up of demand in the lower reaches of the region is limited at present, and there is the possibility of a holiday in part of the downstream in the later period, the weakness of the demand side is still the main factor to restrain the rise of methanol market prices. It is expected that there is relatively limited room for prices to rise or fall in the southwest region in the short term. Interval adjustment may be maintained in the short term. In terms of other regions in China, raw coal prices have recently fallen in a narrow range, cost support has weakened, and there is little change in the supply and demand side of the Chinese market at present. Chinese market prices may maintain a regional trend in the short term, but it is expected to snow next week, so we should also pay attention to the trend of freight prices in the field, as well as the operation of the Silbon MTO plant and Baofeng Phase III plant.