PVC: Futures prices continue to climb Red Friday, 01 significantly reduced their holdings of 93,000 lots, and the spot market rose

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December 8, 2023, 4:15 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 8 V2401 contract opening price: 5746, highest price: 5848, lowest price: 5736, position: 585796, settlement price: 5792, yesterday settlement: 5729, up: 63, daily trading volume: 686883 lots, precipitated capital: 2.392 billion, capital outflow: 347 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.7	Price 12.8	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5620	5580-5650	0/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5610-5690	5680-5760	70/70	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5680-5780	5780-5820	100/40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5550-5700	50/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5640-5660	5690-5710	50/50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5650	5550-5680	50/30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise slightly, the spot market atmosphere has improved. Compared with the valuation, it rose by 30 yuan / ton in North China, 70 yuan / ton in East China, 40-100 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 30-50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises at the beginning of the factory price increase of 30-50 yuan / ton, a few radical enterprises increased by 100 yuan / ton, including off-site warehouse quotations. Futures prices continue to climb, the spot market traders a price offer significantly higher than yesterday, after the price rise, the price advantage disappeared, the basis offer changed little, the spot price began to offer 05 contracts. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(260-340), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(260). Although the prices of the two cities are rising, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak, downstream enterprises begin to wait and see, and only part of the rigid demand replenishment exists.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading opened with a narrow range of volatility, intraday price fluctuations are not obvious. At the beginning of early trading, the late price rose all the way, successfully breaking through the 5800 mark, and the afternoon price was mainly arranged at a relatively high level. 2401 contracts range from 5736 to 5848 throughout the day, with a spread of 112. 01. The contract reduced its position by 93371 hands and has held 585796 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6016, with 380860 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the futures price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract rose slightly and successfully broke through the 5800 mark, and the market showed a significant reduction in positions, of which Duoping was 29.3% compared with the empty market by 28.7%. The departure of the 01 contract dominated by short positions caused the corresponding rebound of the futures price. 01-05 contract monthly gap is 183 points from the closing price, some short positions in the range of 5950-6000 to make a small shift. At present, the large basis difference is still not conducive to the shift of bulls. The technical level shows that there is a narrowing trend in the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2), and the high point of the futures price rises through the position of the middle rail. In the short term, the operation of the futures price or winding performance in the middle rail is observed. Observe the pressure performance in the direction of 01 contract 5850 and 05 contract 6050.

Spot: Friday, although the futures price rebounded, forming a rising trend of Red Friday, but the spot market transaction weakening, buy down do not buy up rigid demand further reduced, the arrival of the position change market separated from some fundamentals. On the supply and demand side of PVC, the start-up of PVC devices at the supply port increased by 2.7% month-on-month to 81% this week, and the start-up rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method both increased. However, the trend of demand is insufficient, and the characteristics of the off-season are still relatively obvious, which leads to insufficient prices in the two cities under the game of supply and demand. The further rebound in futures prices has curbed the low decline of the spot market, from the current time point may be inclined to consider the end of the downward market. In the outer disk, international oil prices fell further to a six-month low as investors worried about sluggish energy demand in the United States and China. In addition, high U. S. oil production and rising gasoline stocks continue to weigh on oil prices. Overall, spot market prices or short-term repair in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.7	Price 12.8	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5760	5833	73
	Average spot price in East China	5650	5720	70
	Average spot price in South China	5730	5800	70
	PVC2401 basis difference	-110	-113	-3
	V2405 collection	5948	6016	68
	V2401-2405 closed	-188	-183	5
	PP2401 collection	7401	7468	67
	Plastic L2401 collection	7950	8057	107
	V--PP basis difference	-1641	-1635	6
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2190	-2224	-34

China PVC Index: the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 52.24, or 0.925%, to 5698.21 on December 8, according to Tudor data. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5903.96, up 5.15, the range is 0.087%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 205.75.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.7 warehouse orders	12.8 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,695	1,892	197
	Guangzhou materials	653	850	197
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	549	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	549	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,436	4,006	570
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,843	2,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,809	2,809	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,107	15,250	143
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,457	3,457	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	360	180
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		42,983	44,073	1,090
Total		42,983	44,073	1,090