PVC: Futures price reduction hit a bottom and rebounded slightly, but the fluctuation range narrowed, and the spot market was repaired sporadically

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December 6, 2023, 4:52 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 6 V2401 contract opening price: 5671, highest price: 5727, lowest price: 5642, position: 740862, settlement price: 5682, yesterday settlement: 5688, down: 6, daily trading volume: 749562 lots, precipitated capital: 2.965 billion, capital outflow: 76.45 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.5	Price 12.6	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5530-5600	5530-5580	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5550-5650	5570-5650	20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5620-5700	5670-5750	50/50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5600-5620	5600-5620	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, the market situation appeared some repair. Comparison of valuation: among them, North China fell by 20 yuan / ton, East China increased by 20 yuan / ton, South China increased by 50 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central and Southwest regions were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises still have a sporadic drop of 20-50 yuan per ton, and most enterprises remain stable for the time being. Futures price volatility has risen, the spot market traders offer part of the price has been raised compared with yesterday, but the adjustment is smaller. The basis offer has not changed much compared with yesterday, and the price advantage of point price has gradually disappeared after the futures price has gone up, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-100-140), South China 01 contract-(0-20-50-90), North 01 contract-(310-350), Southwest 01 contract-(200). After the futures price went up, the spot price advantage declined, the transaction in the spot market became weak, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading opened higher and then fell back, after the lowest point of 5642 bottomed out to rebound. After the start of morning trading, the futures price began to fluctuate upward, there was a certain rise to repair, and the afternoon price continued to rise slightly to the end. 2401 contracts range from 5642 to 5727 throughout the day, with a spread of 85. 01. The contract has reduced its position by 25268 hands, and has held 740862 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5902, with 351973 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract price continued to refresh the low, 5642 approaching the front low of the main link, but did not effectively fall below. On the contrary, the afternoon futures price showed a small rebound trend of reducing positions leaving the market, reducing positions more than 25000 hands from the transaction trend is more inclined to 01 profits, reduced positions left the market, part of the position 05 contracts. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks still open downward, the operating range of the futures price is similar to yesterday's low narrow finishing, but the trend rebounded slightly upward repair, the afternoon cultural goods index also closed higher. On the whole, the rebound caused by reducing positions and leaving the market can not be judged as the rebound of the market. In addition, the market of changing positions and changing months is cautiously involved. It is recommended to wait and see the trend of 05 mainly, and observe the performance of 5750 and 05 contract 5950 points above 01.

Spot: & the trend of nbsp; buying down again rather than buying up prompted light turnover in the spot market today. The slight repair of prices in the two markets did not lead to an improvement in transactions, but most product companies fell into a wait-and-see situation. The current market is not determined by fundamentals, but out of the trend of convergence under the overall commodity mood, as is the case with PVC. The current PVC fundamentals are still not many variables, the current warehouse receipts a total of 41218 hands, equivalent to 206090 tons of spot PVC, market delivery voice gradually. In the outer disk, international oil prices continued to fall due to the disappointing OPEC + production cut decision last week and continuing concerns about oil demand. In addition, the strength of the dollar is also a drag on the oil market. Despite cautious comments from the Fed chairman, the US interest rate market has completely eliminated any possibility of further US interest rate increases. Weak economic data and recent comments from Fed officials, including the chairman, have heightened expectations that the Fed has ended its rate-raising cycle and will start cutting rates as early as March. On the whole, PVC spot market or narrow-band arrangement is the main part in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.5	Price 12.6	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5671	5717	46
	Average spot price in East China	5600	5610	10
	Average spot price in South China	5660	5710	50
	PVC2401 basis difference	-71	-107	-36
	V2405 collection	5867	5902	35
	V2401-2405 closed	-196	-185	11
	PP2401 collection	7381	7419	38
	Plastic L2401 collection	7894	7964	70
	V--PP basis difference	-1710	-1702	8
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2223	-2247	-24

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 11.94, or 0.213%, to 5610.91 on December 6th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5964.04, down 15.94, with a range of 0.267%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 353.13.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.5 warehouse orders	12.6 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	549	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	549	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,356	3,436	80
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,809	2,809	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	14,528	15,067	539
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	3,184	240
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,322	180
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		40,179	41,218	1,039
Total		40,179	41,218	1,039