PVC: Futures prices continue to weaken and fall endlessly, with short positions continuing, and the spot market transactions are dominated

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December 5, 2023, 4:45 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 5th V2401 contract opening price: 5722, highest price: 5732, lowest price: 5653, position: 766130, settlement price: 5688, yesterday settlement: 5770, down: 82, daily trading volume: 785733 lots, precipitated capital: 3.041 billion, capital outflow: 22.19 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.4	Price 12.5	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5640	5530-5600	-50/-40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5600-5700	5550-5650	-50/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5700-5770	5620-5700	-80/-70	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5700	5500-5650	0/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5630-5650	5600-5620	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5650	5450-5600	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to decline, market sentiment continues to run poorly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 40-50 yuan / ton in North China, 50 yuan / ton in East China, 70-80 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 30 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price reduction of 50-100 yuan / ton, yesterday did not reduce the quotation of enterprises fell sharply today. The spot market atmosphere is weak, after the futures price continues to appear low, the spot market trader offers lower than yesterday, the price center of gravity continues to move down, the transaction is mainly point price. The basis is slightly stronger, including East China Base offer 01 contract-(50-100-140), South China 01 contract-(0-20-70) good fans + 30, North 01 contract-(310-370), Southwest 01 contract-(200). On the whole, in the spot market, where the price is on the high side, there is no advantage in the spot market. Most of the goods are shipped at point prices, and the downstream replenishment purchasing enthusiasm has been improved.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading opened slightly volatile, began to weaken and fall below the 5700 mark. After the start of morning trading, futures continued to fluctuate at low levels, and afternoon prices rose slightly but were not strong enough or even unable to exceed the night highs, and afternoon prices returned to weak lows. 2401 contracts range from 5653 to 5732 throughout the day, with a price spread of 79. 01 contracts with an increase of 886 positions and 766130 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5867, with 334605 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating low of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract price continues to refresh and approaches the low position before the main contract, and the operation of the futures price is relatively narrow but mainly low. In terms of transaction, the gap is 24.9% compared with 22.5% more. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks are obvious downward, the daily KD line and MACD line continue to show a dead fork trend, and the distance between the two lines expands. At present, it still shows a short trend, with the main Chinese futures contract floating green in large areas at midday, lithium carbonate down the limit, down 7%, the Container Index (European line), live pigs down more than 4%, and industrial silicon, stainless steel (SS) and Shanghai nickel down nearly 4%. Overall, in the short term, the operation of futures prices will continue to test the previous low of 5596 of the main company.

Spot aspect: First of all, the sentiment of Chinese commodities is slightly on the negative side, with most commodities falling mainly. After entering December, commodities began to gradually usher in the shift of positions and months. Under the current empty state, there is a greater pressure on bulls and speculative demand. The supply of PVC fundamentals is temporarily stable, and the start-up load of chlor-alkali plants in production enterprises is maintained in the early stage, but there is no additional demand except rigid demand on the demand side, and there is also less news about exports recently. It is difficult to support and stimulate. On the one hand, the contract is still dominated by short sellers, on the other hand, the corresponding spot market also shows obvious off-season characteristics. Therefore, although some industrial chains are faced with the queuing of production enterprises and the lack of inventory in the factory area, the greater demand shackles still make the operation of the two cities weak. International oil prices fell as traders took a wait-and-see attitude to OPEC's decision to cut production further in the first quarter of next year. In addition, fears of falling oil demand are also a drag on oil prices. On the whole, the low and weak operation of the PVC spot market continues in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.4	Price 12.5	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5719	5671	-48
	Average spot price in East China	5650	5600	-50
	Average spot price in South China	5735	5660	-75
	PVC2401 basis difference	-69	-71	-2
	V2405 collection	5906	5867	-39
	V2401-2405 closed	-187	-196	-9
	PP2401 collection	7360	7381	21
	Plastic L2401 collection	7856	7894	38
	V--PP basis difference	-1641	-1710	-69
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2137	-2223	-86

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 50.48, or 0.894%, to 5598.97 on December 5. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5979.98, down 9.23, or 0.154%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 381.01.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.4 warehouse orders	12.5 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	549	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	549	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,356	3,356	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,809	2,809	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	13,846	14,528	682
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		39,497	40,179	682
Total		39,497	40,179	682