PVC: Futures prices encountered Black Friday, but hit bottom in the afternoon and rebounded, and the spot market weakened slightly

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December 1, 2023, 4:31 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 1st V2401 contract opening price: 5890, highest price: 5895, lowest price: 5755, position: 735950, settlement price: 5826, yesterday settlement: 5879, down: 53, daily trading volume: 1060918 lots, precipitated capital: 3.01 billion, capital outflow: 10.93 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.30	Price 12.1	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5650-5700	5610-5690	-40/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5710-5800	5610-5720	-100/-80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5780-5860	5740-5800	-40/-60	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5600-5820	5550-5750	-50/-70	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5720-5730	5700-5710	-20/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5560-5700	5560-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price down mainly, afternoon partial repair. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-40 yuan / ton in North China, 80-100 yuan / ton in East China, 40-60 yuan / ton in South China, 50-70 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China, and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price part of the slight reduction of 30-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises maintain wait-and-see. The volatility of futures weakened in the morning, and the price offer of traders in various regions was lower than that of yesterday, and it was difficult for the high offer to have an actual transaction, and the price advantage of point price appeared after the futures price went down. The basis offer is stronger than yesterday, including East China 01 contract-(50-100-160), South China 01 contract-(20-50-100) good fan + 30, North 01 contract-(360-430), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Lower point price downstream order enthusiasm increased, some began to order 05 contract, point price transaction is OK, part of the intention to purchase long-term pre-sale sources, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has slightly improved.

From the perspective of futures: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract fell at the beginning of the night trading, and the price trend did not turn to speak of. After the start of morning trading, futures prices continued to decline, and the market continued to increase its positions substantially. Afternoon prices hit bottom and rebounded, and positions declined rapidly. 2401 contracts fluctuate in the range of 5755-5895 throughout the day, with a price difference of 140,01.01 contracts with an increase of 3346 positions and 735950 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6015, with 275291 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the futures price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract showed a reversal, the morning market showed an obvious downward trend, and the position increased significantly, at one time, the position increased by more than 60, 000 hands, but the price bottomed out in the afternoon, and the rapid withdrawal of the short order led to the price upward. on the one hand, the profit taking of the low short order formed a certain stampede, which led to the low position rising rapidly. On the other hand, there are many single resistance to the sharp changes in the disk. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is obvious downward, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead-forked trend. The low point of the futures price quickly approaches the support level of the lower rail of the Bollinger belt, but the time is short. On the whole, futures prices may continue the trend of low and narrow consolidation in the short term.

Spot aspect: & the trend of nbsp; futures is taken by surprise. First of all, the rapid decline brings quotation pressure to production enterprises and spot merchants in the morning, and prices decline slightly one after another, but in view of the increased enthusiasm of the market not to buy up and low prices, product enterprises have an appropriate amount of replenishment, changing the light situation in the week, so although prices in the two markets are expected to decline on Friday, the transaction has improved slightly. In the afternoon, as futures prices rose, some merchants began to tentatively repair low prices. Today, the trend of the overall cultural goods index is similar to that of PVC, and it is difficult for PVC to get out of a separate market under the common commodity mood. And PVC does not have unique fundamentals, high inventory and slow supply digestion always restrict the disk. On the outer disk, oil prices fell more than 2 per cent as OPEC + decided to cut production in the first quarter of next year, but by a lower-than-expected amount. Look at the spot market as a whole or re-extend the situation of pre-low consolidation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.30	Price 12.1	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5890	5842	-48
	Average spot price in East China	5755	5665	-90
	Average spot price in South China	5820	5770	-50
	PVC2401 basis difference	-135	-177	-42
	V2405 collection	6073	6015	-58
	V2401-2405 closed	-183	-173	10
	PP2401 collection	7476	7442	-34
	Plastic L2401 collection	7968	7932	-36
	V--PP basis difference	-1586	-1600	-14
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2078	-2090	-12

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 49.22, or 0.858%, to 5685.91 on December 1. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6069.06, down 16.09, or 0.264%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 383.15.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.30 warehouse orders	12.1 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	549	132
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	549	132
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,356	3,356	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,774	2,774	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	13,846	13,846	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		39,330	39,462	132
Total		39,330	39,462	132