PVC: The low and sideways position of futures prices continues, the Bollinger Band opens downward, and the spot continues to adjust within a narrow range

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November 29, 2023, 4:50 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 29th V2401 contract opening price: 5866, highest price: 2905, lowest price: 5844, position: 749975, settlement price: 5869, yesterday settlement: 5873, down: 4, daily trading volume: 612980 lots, precipitated capital: 3.072 billion, capital outflow: 46.94 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.28	Price 11.29	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5630-5720	5650-5700	20/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5700-5820	5700-5790	0/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5750-5850	5750-5850	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5650-5720	5600-5820	-50/100	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5720-5730	5720-5730	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5560-5700	5560-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to be arranged in a narrow range, spot market prices do not change much. Compared with the valuation, the low-end prices in North China rose by 20 yuan / ton, the high-end prices fell by 20 yuan / ton, the high-end prices in East China fell by 30 yuan / ton, South China was stable, and the low-end prices in Northeast China fell by 50 yuan / ton. high-end prices rose 100 yuan / ton, and central and southwestern regions were stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises temporarily stable ex-factory prices, individual shipping rhythm of enterprises slightly reduced 20-50 yuan / ton. Futures is still low horizontal trading mainly, the spot market traders in various regions offer is basically stable compared with yesterday, point price and a mouth price offer coexist, but the price advantage of the basis offer is not obvious, the actual transaction negotiation is the main. The basis does not change much, including East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(20-50-100), North 01 contract-(400), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Overall downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, downstream early bargain replenishment, today most temporary wait-and-see, the spot market trading atmosphere is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night first narrow collation, and then the late price rose, after the start of the morning price from the high down, but the overall decline is not large, mainly in the afternoon at a relatively low level. 2401 the contract fluctuates from 5844 to 5905 throughout the day, with a spread of 61. 01. The contract reduced its position by 10160 hands, and has held 749975 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6025, with 244744 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices continue to be arranged horizontally, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening downward, the daily level of KD line and MACD line still show a dead fork trend. From the overall trend line, the operation of the PVC main contract is still weak, and the short-term futures price is under upward pressure, which comes from the lack of fundamental and macro support, and the 01 contract is still weak in the absence of positive factors. For the current operating trend of the futures price, we believe that the state of the low horizontal position with the passage of time, or ushered in the short position to change the month, 01-09 contract is still large, short-term price operation or continue to narrow mode, continue to observe the performance of the 5850-5950 range.

Spot: this week's spot market feedback is not good, in view of last week's futures prices down, product companies and merchants through low prices for some replenishment, so this week in the horizontal state of the spot market turnover is light, production enterprises also feedback insufficient orders, spot orders low there is a basic quantity but difficult to sell. At present, the supply of PVC is stable, and there are not many fundamental variables. the narrow horizontal trade of the two cities makes the spot market price lack enough fluctuation direction, no matter whether it rises or falls, it lacks the motivation of adjustment, so the overall two cities tend to be stable, especially the spot market price changes little. In the outer disk, oil prices rose 2 per cent as production from Kazakhstan's largest oil field plunged 56 per cent due to offshore storms. Businesses are also watching the OPEC + meeting to be held on Thursday, which is expected to extend the production reduction agreement until next year. On the whole, the spot market may still maintain the trend of narrow arrangement.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.28	Price 11.29	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5862	5852	-10
	Average spot price in East China	5760	5745	-15
	Average spot price in South China	5800	5800	0
	PVC2401 basis difference	-102	-107	-5
	V2405 collection	6062	6025	-37
	V2401-2405 closed	-200	-173	27
	PP2401 collection	7418	7393	-25
	Plastic L2401 collection	7864	7869	5
	V--PP basis difference	-1556	-1541	15
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2002	-2017	-15

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 2.94, or 0.051%, to 5727.73 on November 29th. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 6085.15, up 8.13%, with a range of 0.134%. The calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index increased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 357.42.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.28 warehouse orders	11.29 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,356	3,356	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,774	2,774	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	13,846	13,846	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		39,330	39,330	0
Total		39,330	39,330	0