PVC: Futures prices fluctuate within a narrow range at low levels, technical closing lines are unstable, and spot price changes are narrowing

94,667

November 28, 2023, 4:44 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 28th V2401 contract opening price: 5893, highest price: 5906, lowest price: 5836, position: 760135, settlement price: 5873, yesterday settlement: 5882, down: 9, daily trading volume: 592181 lots, precipitated capital: 3.119 billion, capital outflow: 48.04 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.27	Price 11.28	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5650-5720	5630-5720	-20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5710-5830	5700-5820	-10/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5750-5860	5750-5850	0/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5650-5720	5650-5720	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5730-5740	5720-5730	-10/-10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5700	5560-5700	-40/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to maintain a narrow adjustment, price fluctuations are small. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 10 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, 10 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10 yuan / ton in Central China and 40 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC manufacturers factory prices continue to remain stable, although Tuesday is the date of contract signing, but the current generation of merchants do not receive much, especially after the weak operation of futures prices, the willingness to sign orders is weaker and weaker. The price offered by traders in all regions is basically more stable than yesterday, because the futures price has dropped slightly, and the basis offer has a slight advantage, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(20-50-100), North 01 contract-(400), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the spot market is calm, the actual transaction negotiations are mainly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, merchants and downstream enterprises wait and see temporarily, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night market narrow arrangement mainly, futures price fluctuations lack of sufficient direction, after the beginning of early trading, futures prices began to weaken, afternoon lows of 5836, followed by a slight rise in futures prices. 2401 contracts fluctuate from 5836 to 5906 throughout the day, with a price difference of 70,01.The contract has reduced its position by 7646 hands and has held 760135 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6026, with 231640 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price after the whole night market narrow finishing, the daytime period again weak, intraday trading open 24.8% compared with 19.7% more open mainly short, 2401 contract before the end of the entrenched by short. At the close of midday, the main contracts of Chinese futures were up and down. Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 4%, Container Index (European Line) rose more than 2%, Urea, rape Oil, Shanghai Silver, Apple, stainless Steel (SS) and Soybean Oil rose more than 1%. In terms of decline, lithium carbonate and soda ash fell by more than 4%, styrene (EB) fell by more than 3%, iron ore and Shanghai tin fell by more than 2%. The rise is basically concentrated in the agricultural sector, as a whole, we still maintain the previous judgment, futures prices may continue to be sorted out in a narrow range, and continue to observe the performance in the range of 5850-5950.

Spot aspect: period the two cities are still low and narrow collation. From the perspective of time, the market of changing positions and changing months began to be ushered in in December, and the fundamentals of the spot market were still few before the end of the 01 contract, so the high inventory and poor spot digestion under the game of supply and demand still restricted the market. On the one hand, the 01 contract will not have a better performance, on the other hand, the difficulty of spot digestion has always made it impossible for merchants to sign orders, and the annual average profit has been reduced. At present, there are differences in the PVC trend of the industrial chain. On the one hand, they think that the prices of the two cities may still test the low range, on the other hand, they think that the weakness of the two cities is a consensus, but they continue to need continuous short suppression and negative factors. Oil prices fell in the outer disk, with Brent crude futures falling below $80 a barrel as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a global oil glut next year. Traders are awaiting the results of the OPEC + meeting to be held later this week. On the whole, the spot market will continue to be low and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.27	Price 11.28	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5893	5862	-31
	Average spot price in East China	5770	5760	-10
	Average spot price in South China	5805	5800	-5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-123	-102	21
	V2405 collection	6062	6062	0
	V2401-2405 closed	-169	-200	-31
	PP2401 collection	7449	7418	-31
	Plastic L2401 collection	7893	7864	-29
	V--PP basis difference	-1556	-1556	0
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2000	-2002	-2

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 9.18, or 0.160%, to 5730.67 on Nov. 28. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6077.02, down 3.09, with a range of 0.051%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 346.35.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.27 warehouse orders	11.28 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,356	3,356	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,774	2,774	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	13,846	13,846	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		39,330	39,330	0
Total		39,330	39,330	0