PVC: The futures price reduced its position and left the market and rose slightly at the end of the day. This wave of market may end. The spot market range is sorted out.

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November 27, 2023, 4:25 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 27th V2401 contract opening price: 5910, highest price: 5919, lowest price: 5845, position: 767781, settlement price: 5882, yesterday settlement: 5856, up: 26, daily trading volume: 700874 lots, precipitated capital: 3.167 billion, capital outflow: 179 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.24	Price 11.27	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5650-5720	5650-5720	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5710-5830	5710-5830	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5740-5860	5750-5860	10/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5650-5720	5650-5720	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5710-5730	5730-5740	20/10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5700	5600-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, the overall change is not big. According to the comparison of valuation, North China is temporarily stable, East China is temporarily stable, South China is up 10 yuan / ton, Northeast China is temporarily stable, Central China is up 10-20 yuan / ton, and Southwest China is temporarily stable. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, without obvious adjustment, including the quotations of remote warehouses remain unchanged, but there are few contracts signed on Monday. The volatility of the futures market is mainly due to the slight rise in the afternoon futures price, the traders' offer price has not changed much, and the price advantage of the basis offer is not obvious for the time being. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(20-50-100), North 01 contract-(400), Southwest 01 contract-(250), the downstream wait-and-see mentality is more obvious, the enthusiasm of product enterprises to take goods has weakened, last week bargain replenishment, so Monday's spot market turnover is poor, procurement enthusiasm decreased.

From a futures point of view: & the opening price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract was slightly weaker last week, breaking the 5900 mark. After the start of morning trading, the futures price fluctuated on the basis of the night market, the lowest point of 5845 hit bottom and rebounded, and the price rose slightly in the afternoon. 2401 contracts range from 5845 to 5919 throughout the day, with a spread of 74. 01. The contract reduced its position by 42331 positions and has held 767781 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6062, with 219065 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The futures price of PVC2401 contract has been repaired to a certain extent since its low of 5781. On Monday, it rose slightly at the end of the day, and its position showed a certain trend of reducing its position and leaving the market. The continuous reduction of positions last Friday may to a certain extent herald the end of this downward market. With the passage of time, the market of changing positions for months begins to be ushered in. On the one hand, speculative positions in the market of changing positions for months are suggested to participate carefully. The market is divorced from the fundamentals of repetition, and short-dominated 01 contract Jiancang market or support the futures price, and will not go down further. Technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening is still downward, in the short term to look at the price or continue to collate narrowly, observe the performance of the range of 5850-5950.

Spot aspect: & the reduction of positions on the nbsp; futures market curbed the further decline of the futures price, of which the market was 28.2% flat compared to 24.6% flat, and the depressed market showed signs of ending. The corresponding spot market has stopped falling at the same time, but there are no further signs of pushing up. Whether they are production enterprises or traders and downstream products enterprises, they have a strong wait-and-see mentality. On the one hand, the price is in the process of falling in the early stage. Product enterprises have rigid demand to replenish goods at bargain prices. Therefore, when the market stops falling, the transaction becomes weaker. PVC fundamentals are still not many variables at present, after the midline enters the market of changing positions and changing months, the trend of the prices of the two cities is expected to break away from the fundamentals to form a unique market for changing months. Oil prices have fallen in the outer disk, and the market is expected to maintain the current production reduction agreement at this week's OPEC + meeting. On the whole, the spot market price may continue to be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.24	Price 11.27	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5901	5893	-8
	Average spot price in East China	5770	5770	0
	Average spot price in South China	5800	5805	5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-131	-123	8
	V2405 collection	6077	6062	-15
	V2401-2405 closed	-176	-169	7
	PP2401 collection	7462	7449	-13
	Plastic L2401 collection	7934	7893	-41
	V--PP basis difference	-1561	-1556	5
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2033	-2000	33

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 2.95, or 0.051%, to 5739.85 on November 27th. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6080.11, up 3.09, the range is 0.051%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 340.26.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.24 warehouse orders	11.27 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	3,356	100
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,774	2,774	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	12,922	13,846	924
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		38,306	39,330	1,024
Total		38,306	39,330	1,024