PVC: Futures prices rebounded and repaired, coinciding with short-term partial departures on Friday, and the spot market rose slightly

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November 24, 2023, 4:26 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 24th V2401 contract opening price: 5815, highest price: 5911, lowest price: 5813, position: 810111, settlement price: 5856, yesterday settlement: 5819, up: 37, daily trading volume: 686527 lots, precipitated capital: 3.347 billion, capital outflow: 75.08 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.23	Price 11.24	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5600-5670	5650-5720	50/50	Send to cash remittance
East China	5670-5790	5710-5830	40/40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5690-5810	5740-5860	50/50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5600-5720	5650-5720	50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5680-5700	5710-5730	30/30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5650	5600-5700	50/50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, prices for partial repair. Compared with the valuation, North China increased by 50 yuan / ton, East China by 40 yuan / ton, South China by 50 yuan / ton, Northeast region by 50 yuan / ton, Central China by 30 yuan / ton, and Southwest China by 50 yuan / ton. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, individual enterprises sporadically raised 30 yuan / ton, coinciding with Friday generation contract signing is not much. The spot market price offer has been raised, the futures price rose slightly in the afternoon, the price advantage of the base offer has been relatively weakened, and the point price offer 01 contract and 05 contract coexist. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(20-50-100), North 01 contract-(400), Southwest 01 contract-(250), the basis has narrowed and strengthened. On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches of the Friday period is not high, the enthusiasm of hanging orders is general, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

From the perspective of futures: & the opening price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract is mainly volatile at night, and rose slightly at the end of the night. After the beginning of morning trading, the futures price was arranged and operated in a narrow range on the basis of night trading, and the price rose again in the afternoon and the upward range was OK in the late afternoon. 2401 the contract fluctuates from 5813 to 5911 throughout the day, with a spread of 98. 01. The contract reduced its position by 30426 hands, and so far it has held 810111 positions. The 2405 contract closed at 6077, with 210858 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices from the low slightly upside repair market, on the one hand coincided with Friday part of the short-term hot money left the market to avoid risk, the market showed a reduction of more than 30, 000 hands rhythm, on the one hand, the futures price since the high so far formed a 300-400 point decline, some short orders profit-taking. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is still expanding, the KD line at the daily level crosses, and the dead fork trend of the MACD line continues. From the point of view of the current time node, the rebound repair of futures tends to rely on the reduction and departure of short orders, lack of substantial multi-factor support and the introduction of macro-level, and the range of upward materials will not be too large. Observe the performance in the range of 5850-5950.

Spot: futures prices in the two cities rose slightly, but there were few transactions in the spot market on Friday, and some downstream enterprises hung low orders to meet bargain replenishment, so after the futures price rose on Friday, the point price advantage disappeared and the market inquiry activity decreased, fully reflecting the trading trend of buying down but not buying up, but on the whole, the trading in the spot market during the week was still better than that in the early stage. At present, the variables on the supply and demand level of PVC are still generally good, the supply level is temporarily stable, and there are no more hype factors from the perspective of chlor-alkali balance, so it comes from the lack of fundamental direction. In the outer disk, oil prices fell by about 1%, as OPEC's postponement of the ministerial meeting raised expectations that its production cuts may not intensify next year. On the whole, the spot market continues to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.23	Price 11.24	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5815	5901	86
	Average spot price in East China	5730	5770	40
	Average spot price in South China	5750	5800	50
	PVC2401 basis difference	-85	-131	-46
	V2405 collection	6013	6077	64
	V2401-2405 closed	-198	-176	22
	PP2401 collection	7424	7462	38
	Plastic L2401 collection	7854	7934	80
	V--PP basis difference	-1609	-1561	48
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2039	-2033	6

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC rose 43.01, or 0.755%, to 5736.90 on Nov. 24. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6077.02, up 26.32, with a range of 0.435%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 340.12.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.23 warehouse orders	11.24 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,423	1,423	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	982	982	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	3,256	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,760	2,774	14
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	12,922	12,922	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		38,292	38,306	14
Total		38,292	38,306	14