PVC: When will futures rise? The intraday suffered short pressure again, and the spot market fell slightly

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November 20, 2023, 4:29 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 20 V2401 contract opening price: 6068, highest price: 6094, lowest price: 6005, position: 770701, settlement price: 6054, yesterday settlement: 6089, down: 35, daily trading volume: 870223 lots, precipitated capital: 3.244 billion, capital inflow: 134 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.17	Price 11.20	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5750-5800	5730-5770	-20/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5850-5940	5830-5930	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5900-5950	5880-5930	-20/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5650-5870	5650-5870	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5830-5870	5830-5850	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5700-5800	5700-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices slightly lower, market sentiment slightly weaker. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-30 yuan / ton in North China, 10-20 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, and most of the upstream enterprises wait and see on Monday. Futures prices fluctuated downwards and weakened significantly in the afternoon. The price offered by traders in all regions has decreased compared with last Friday, with the price advantage of the downward basis offer, including 01 contract in East China-(150-200-250), 01 contract in South China-(110-150-220), North 01 contract-(500-550), Southwest 01 contract-(350). At present, the current basis of each region is large. Spot market prices there are certain transactions, but most concentrated in the low price range, some even hanging orders 5950-5980 area range, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

From a futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened on Friday night with a narrow range of fluctuations and unclear direction. After the start of morning trading, the market weakened slightly, and then continued to fluctuate near 6040. Late afternoon futures weakened again, with lows falling below the prefix. 2401 contracts range from 6005 to 6094 throughout the day, with a spread of 89. 01 contracts with an increase of 37190 positions and 770701 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6199, with 169758 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract price on the basis of Black Friday last week, the first week price weakened again at the beginning of the week, the low point of the futures price approached the position of the lower track, the technical level showed that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) was slightly expanded, the opening of the lower rail of the middle rail was downward, the KD line of the daily line showed a dead-fork trend, and the two lines of MACD crossed. Trading volume increased positions down significantly, of which open 27.1% compared to open 22.9%, the disk is slightly better than the short. At present, the weak fundamentals of PVC have become a consensus, and demand constraints make it difficult for the two cities to have a better performance. As a whole, the operation of futures prices may continue to test the low price range in the short term, and observe the performance in the range of 5900-6000.

Spot aspect: & the nbsp; futures market is weak again, the futures market is hit by short positions to suppress the futures price down again test the prefix 6, and in the case of increasing positions in late trading, they are more inclined to short positions to expect more profit space. Purely from the perspective of the cash basis, under the premise of the expansion of the basis of each region, the digestion of the spot market is slow, especially on the basis of poor downstream delivery, on the one hand, consider hedging, on the other hand, consider direct delivery. In each region, the supply of PVC goods in the delivery warehouse is gradually increasing, the warehouse receipt also shows the volume, and the recent increment of the unloading vehicles in the delivery warehouse is obvious. Therefore, for the two cities, it is still difficult to have a good performance in the short term, and the high price is obviously restricted by the weak fundamentals. At present, there are not many guidelines from the macro level and the news level, so it is difficult for the two cities to have greater ups and downs in the PVC period, and the spot market may still be dominated by low-level consolidation in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.17	Price 11.20	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6058	6014	-44
	Average spot price in East China	5895	5880	-15
	Average spot price in South China	5925	5905	-20
	PVC2401 basis difference	-163	-134	29
	V2405 collection	6220	6199	-21
	V2401-2405 closed	-162	-185	-23
	PP2401 collection	7705	7636	-69
	Plastic L2401 collection	8161	8078	-83
	V--PP basis difference	-1647	-1622	25
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2103	-2064	39

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 15.29, or 0.261%, to 5834.67 on November 20. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6223.3, down 11.07%, with a range of 0.178%. The calcium carbide method index fell, the ethylene method index dropped, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 388.63.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.17 warehouse orders	11.20 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,383	1,383	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	942	942	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	3,256	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,690	2,690	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	12,462	12,462	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	26	26	0
Total		37,748	37,748	0
		37,748	37,748	0