PVC: Futures encountered Black Friday, futures prices fell significantly within the intraday market, and spot prices loosened slightly

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November 17, 2023, 4:35 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 17 V2401 contract opening price: 6137, highest price: 6160, lowest price: 6033, position: 733511, settlement price: 6089, yesterday settlement: 6116, down: 27, daily trading volume: 1064935 lots, precipitated capital: 3.111 billion, capital outflow: 49.46 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.16	Price 11.17	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5780-5820	5750-5800	-30/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5900-5970	5850-5940	-50/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5900-5980	5900-5950	0/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5650-5870	5650-5870	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5880-5920	5830-5870	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5700-5800	5700-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market have loosened slightly and prices have weakened in various regions. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-30 yuan / ton in North China, 30-50 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices slightly reduced 20-50 yuan / ton, some maintain a stable price wait-and-see, coinciding with Friday generation contract signing is not much. Futures are weak and downward, and the prices offered by traders in various regions have fallen slightly, and there is basically room for negotiation. After the futures price goes down, the order order is relatively increased, and there is a certain transaction in the low order. The basis of each region has expanded, including East China base offer 01 contract-(150-200-250), South China 01 contract-(130-200), North 01 contract-(500-550), Southwest 01 contract-(350). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream has not changed greatly, the purchase order for bargain is on the low side, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is slightly weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night opening price is relatively high volatility, but the high price has not been maintained, and then weakened obviously. After the start of morning trading, futures prices fell further, the lowest point is 6033, afternoon prices rebounded slightly to repair, but not strong enough. 2401 contracts range from 6033 to 6160 throughout the day, with a spread of 127. 01 contracts reduced their positions by 2072 positions, and so far they have held 733511 positions. The 2405 contract closed at 6220, with 159370 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2401 contract futures encountered Black Friday, the intraday decline was obvious, and the short opening of 23.5% was compared with 22.7% more. From the perspective of transaction trend, it is more inclined to short-term operation, and the fluctuation range of futures price is in line with our expectations. At present, the operation of the futures price is framed to run within a relatively narrow range. Relatively small adjustments make the trend line change frequently, especially the KD line at the daily level. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) tends to expand, and the futures price runs through the low point of the middle rail and approaches the position of the lower rail. In the short term, the operation of futures prices will continue the current trend, rising and falling dilemma, we still maintain the early judgment, the operation of futures prices to observe the performance in the range of 6000-6150.

Spot aspect: period the operation of the two cities is weak on Friday, the prices of the two cities are weak, there are certain transactions in the spot market low hanging orders, but only maintain rigid demand procurement, downstream products enterprises feedback is not good. For the current PVC spot market sales, the annual average profit is reduced obviously, especially the intermediate merchants feedback that the profit of PVC single product is less, and some merchants open up new chemical categories. From the perspective of chlor-alkali balance, the current two markets of PVC are mature, but when caustic soda futures are listed soon and fluctuate widely, some funds tend to pay more attention to caustic soda products. PVC current fundamentals are still weak, the market continues to outflow funds, the spot market is also lack of a certain degree of activity. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market fell nearly 5%, and the US WTI oil price fell to its lowest level since July, as the market worried that the downturn in US economic data might lead to a slowdown in its oil demand, and pessimistic traders even thought that the current oil market was already oversupplied. On the whole, the spot market is still mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.16	Price 11.17	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6137	6058	-79
	Average spot price in East China	5935	5895	-40
	Average spot price in South China	5940	5925	-15
	PVC2401 basis difference	-202	-163	39
	V2405 collection	6285	6220	-65
	V2401-2405 closed	-148	-162	-14
	PP2401 collection	7751	7705	-46
	Plastic L2401 collection	8186	8161	-25
	V--PP basis difference	-1614	-1647	-33
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2049	-2103	-54

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 26.57, or 0.452%, to 5849.96 on November 17. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6211.93, down 3.6, with a range of 0.058%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 361.97.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.16 warehouse orders	11.17 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,383	1,383	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	942	942	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	417	417	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	417	417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	3,256	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	1,843	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,690	2,690	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	12,395	12,462	67
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	307	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	26	26	0
Total		37,681	37,748	67
		37,681	37,748	67