PVC: Futures experienced minor repairs after a deep decline, hot money reduced its position in the short term, and spot prices adjusted slightly

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November 14, 2023, 4:52 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 14 V2401 contract opening price: 6017, highest price: 6085, lowest price: 6012, position: 772669, settlement price: 6054, yesterday settlement: 6059, down: 5, daily trading volume: 758430 lots, precipitated capital: 3.289 billion, capital outflow: 76.44 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.13	Price 11.14	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5730-5780	5780-5810	50/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5850-5920	5870-5950	20/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5860-5920	5900-5950	40/30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5870	5700-5870	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5830-5850	5830-5850	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5700-5800	5700-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices slightly upward repair, but less efforts. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 30-50 yuan / ton, East China increased 20-30 yuan / ton, South China increased 30-40 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central and Southwest regions were stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is mainly stable, and there is no obvious adjustment trend. Futures prices from the low slightly upward repair, the range is not large, the price of traders in various regions increased yesterday, but the transaction is still concentrated within the low price range. In the spot market, both the spot price and the spot price coexist, and some of the bases are slightly weaker, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(150-170-200), South China 01 contract-(110-150-200), North 01 contract-(500-550), Southwest 01 contract-(300), downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakens, some small orders for bargains are mainly purchased, and the point of view is generally low, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak. Turnover in the overall spot market is limited.

From the perspective of futures: & the opening price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract is low and narrow in the night trading, and it rose slightly in the late trading. Futures prices continued to rise after the start of early trading, but the upward strength was insufficient, and the upward did not break through the integer barrier, and afternoon prices fluctuated relatively high during the day. 2401 contracts range from 6012 to 6085 throughout the day, with a spread of 73. 01 contracts with an increase of 27031 positions and 772669 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6215, with 142892 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The futures price of the PVC2401 contract fell deeply on Monday, and the trend of the futures price today has been slightly repaired, but the low point of the futures price still touches the lower track of the Bollinger belt. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) still has a downward trend, but the distance between the three tracks is narrowing, and the recent trend of relatively narrow adjustment still makes the trend lines at the technical level lack sufficient guidance. In particular, the two trends of the KD line at the daily line level appear alternately, but the distance between the two lines of MACD gradually narrows. Although the futures price shows a small repair, we still believe that the current time node bears still have enough room to carry out, we continue to maintain the early judgment of the operation of the price there is still a certain risk, but the short-term continues to observe the performance of the low 6.

Spot aspect: spot market presents buy down do not buy up the current operation has become a trend, after today's futures price slightly upside repair, downstream products enterprises inquiry enthusiasm is weakened, the actual order transaction is still low hanging order. Judging from this characteristic, the consensus of the overall industrial chain is that the supply of goods in the current spot market is still not digested smoothly, and there are varying degrees of sales pressure on both production enterprises and traders. Especially in the face of off-season and late Spring Festival accumulation expectations, the current period of signing and pre-sale is becoming more and more obvious. At present, the rising power of the PVC market mainly depends on the pull of the macro level and the policy level, and the weak fundamentals have always become shackles. Therefore, even if the short-term uplink pressure is also greater, but the current two cities of the downward part of the industrial chain that the same will not appear deep downside. In the short term, the spot market may still continue the trend of narrow consolidation, but when the basis is too large, the delivery of 01 contracts and the generation of warehouse receipts are gradually put on the agenda.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.13	Price 11.14	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6012	6081	69
	Average spot price in East China	5885	5910	25
	Average spot price in South China	5890	5925	35
	PVC2401 basis difference	-127	-171	-44
	V2405 collection	6166	6215	49
	V2401-2405 closed	-154	-134	20
	PP2401 collection	7630	7671	41
	Plastic L2401 collection	8032	8059	27
	V--PP basis difference	-1618	-1590	28
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2020	-1978	42

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 23.46, or 0.402%, to 5858.89 on Nov. 14. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6207.45, up 6.69, the range is 0.108%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 348.56.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.13 warehouse orders	11.14 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,383	-	-
	Guangzhou materials	441	-	-
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	942	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	-	-
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,843	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,150	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	12,395	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	180	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	307	-	-
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	-	-
PVC subtotal	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	26	-	-
Total		37,075	-	-
		37,075	-	-