PVC: Opportunities for long and short futures have decreased, funds have flocked to the two bases, and spot prices continue to adjust within a narrow range

94,538

November 10, 2023, 4:13 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 10 V2401 contract opening price: 6130, highest price: 6175, lowest price: 6082, position: 113030, settlement price: 3125, yesterday settlement: 6139, down: 15, daily trading volume: 1074042 lots, precipitated capital: 3.301 billion, capital inflow: 22.82 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.9	Price 11.10	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5810-5840	5800-5830	-10/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5950-5990	5950-5990	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5950-6000	5930-5980	-20/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5750-5950	5700-5900	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5880-5900	5830-5880	-50/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5700-5850	5700-5800	0/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to adjust in a narrow range, the spot market operating atmosphere is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20-50 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, but there are few contracts signed on Friday. Futures rose first and then fell. Afternoon prices weakened. The quotation prices of traders in various regions diverged, and some of them increased slightly in the morning, but there were few real transactions in the high offer. In the afternoon, with the weakening of futures, the offer of one price gradually decreased, and the overall price changes throughout the day were mainly arranged in a narrow range. The base offer has no obvious advantage for the time being, including 01 contract in East China-(200), 01 contract in South China-(120-170-230), 01 contract in North China-(500-550), 01 contract in Southwest China-(350). The purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is low and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

From a futures point of view: PVC2401 contracts weakened significantly at the start of the night trading, but bottomed out at a low of 6082. After the start of morning trading, futures continued to rise, and then the high price did not remain weaker, and afternoon prices continued to fall slightly. 2401 contracts range from 6082 to 6175 throughout the day, with a spread of 93. 01 contracts with an increase of 9725 positions and 773030 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6245, with 135096 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC futures: the operation of PVC2401 contract prices continues to be sideways, long-short participation has been reduced, the recent funds have been leaving the market, disk positions continue to decline, although there is a small increase in positions in today's market, but the trend of futures prices is insufficient, narrow adjustment of the market makes opportunities reduced. From the point of view of related products, the fluctuation of soda ash and caustic soda increased recently. The main contract of Chinese futures was mixed at midday close. Soda ash rose by more than 10%, glass by more than 3%, caustic soda, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lithium carbonate, iron ore and coke by more than 2%. Overall, in the short term, it comes from the lack of fundamentals and policies, and the market price may continue to run in the range of 6050-6200.

Spot aspect: the fluctuation range of the current futures market operation is relatively narrow, the spot market price adjustment is also insufficient, mostly in a small range, although there are daily adjustments, but the boost to the transaction is limited, after the futures price runs to a low level, there is a part of the point price rigid demand transaction, but can not form a better PVC digestion. And the factors available in the spot market are reduced, the level of supply and demand is not good, and there is a dilemma between rising and falling prices in the two markets. On the outer disk, international oil prices rose slightly after a sell-off earlier this week, possibly because low prices attracted some bargain-hunting investors. Earlier this week, demand concerns and war risk premiums receded, triggering a sell-off in the oil market. For the current spot market in the stabilized market, production enterprises and traders have sales pressure, a small adjustment of prices is not conducive to stimulate speculative demand, so the spot market may continue to adjust slightly in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.9	Price 11.10	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6135	6100	-35
	Average spot price in East China	5970	5970	0
	Average spot price in South China	5975	5955	-20
	PVC2401 basis difference	-165	-130	35
	V2405 collection	6271	6245	-26
	V2401-2405 closed	-136	-145	-9
	PP2401 collection	7722	7710	-12
	Plastic L2401 collection	8169	8162	-7
	V--PP basis difference	-1587	-1610	-23
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2034	-2062	-28

China PVC Index: the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 16.10, or 0.273%, to 5890.32 on Nov. 10, according to Tudor data. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6225.77, up 2.96, with a range of 0.048%, while the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index rose slightly, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 335.45.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.9 warehouse orders	11.10 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,143	1,143	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	702	702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	351	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	351	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,256	3,256	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,843	500
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,420	2,150	730
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	11,753	12,133	380
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,944	2,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	180	60
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,142	3,142	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		34,844	36,514	1,670
Total		34,844	36,514	1,670