PVC: Futures turned red in the afternoon, first suppressed and then rose, with long and short positions rotating out of the market, and the spot trend was divided

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November 8, 2023, 4:36 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 8 V2401 contract opening price: 6096, highest price: 6154, lowest price: 6054, position: 778117, settlement price: 6092, yesterday settlement: 6139, down: 47, daily trading volume: 920231 lots, precipitated capital: 3.347 billion, capital outflow: 37.44 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.7	Price 11.8	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5830-5870	5800-5840	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5950-5980	5900-5980	-50/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5950-6020	5920-5970	-30/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5750-5950	5750-5950	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5880-5900	5850-5880	-30/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5750-5900	5700-5850	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price trend differentiation, morning session price fell, afternoon rebounded. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30 yuan / ton in North China, 50 yuan / ton in East China, 30-50 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20-30 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been reduced by 30-50 yuan per ton, and some enterprises continue to stabilize prices. The trend of futures prices first suppressed and then rose, and there were differences in the trend of the spot market throughout the day, including a negative drop in prices in the spot market in early trading, and a bad atmosphere, but there was an advantage in the supply of goods at spot prices. Among them, the base difference offer 01 contract in East China-(200), South China 01 contract-(120-170-230), North 01 contract-(500-550), Southwest 01 contract-(300). The actual transaction is mainly at a low price, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved slightly. Afternoon prices rebounded upward, the spot market offers were raised in intraday trading, recovering some of the decline, but the transaction began to fade, and the high price was not good.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night market low and narrow range operation, intraday volatility narrowed. Prices continued to fluctuate after the start of early trading, intraday fluctuations are still lack of direction, prices began to rise in the afternoon, and rose relatively significantly in late trading. 2401 contracts range from 6054 to 6154 throughout the day, with a price difference of 100,01.The contract has reduced its position by 13083 hands and has held 778117 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6275, with 123970 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2401 contract prices throughout the day after a long period of narrow horizontal trading, late afternoon futures prices rose to recover the previous decline, low futures prices showed a certain more open sentiment, trading opened 23.2% more than empty 21.9%. The recent narrow fluctuation of the futures price makes the overall technical trend lines temporarily lose the basis for judgment, so the trend provided by the technical level is insufficient. At the close of midday, the main contracts of Chinese futures were up and down. Coke coal rose by more than 2%, soda ash, coke, thread, methanol, ferrosilicon and hot coil rose by more than 1%. The trend of the main contract price of PVC also rose at the end of the cultural index. In the short term, the futures price may continue to test the position on the track and observe the performance in the range of 6050-6200.

Spot: spot market transactions after the decline in the early price, there is a certain deal in the low hanging order, but differentiation in the afternoon, the price repair but the inquiry is not good, thus it can be seen that the spot market buy down do not buy up mentality is obvious. From the current supply and demand level, the start-up load of the PVC plant is stable, production enterprises and traders are actively shipping to digest inventory, but the demand side is still slightly weak, various businesses feedback downstream demand continues to be poor, and the current two cities of narrow adjustment make participants lack of direction. On the outer disk, international oil prices fell more than 4 per cent, hitting their lowest level since late July as an increase in OPEC oil exports eased concerns about market tensions and the dollar strengthened. Looking at the spot market in the short term as a whole, there is a lack of direction guidance in both fundamental and macro aspects, resulting in a dilemma between rising and falling prices, and the state of slight adjustment continues.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.7	Price 11.8	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6110	6144	34
	Average spot price in East China	5965	5940	-25
	Average spot price in South China	5985	5945	-40
	PVC2401 basis difference	-145	-204	-59
	V2405 collection	6247	6275	28
	V2401-2405 closed	-137	-131	6
	PP2401 collection	7694	7710	16
	Plastic L2401 collection	8181	8202	21
	V--PP basis difference	-1584	-1566	18
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2071	-2058	13

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 30.04, or 0.508%, to 5886.74 on November 8. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6225.9, down 5.15, with a range of 0.083%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 339.16.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.7 warehouse orders	11.8 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,143	1,143	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	702	702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	351	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	351	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,937	2,937	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,350	1,350	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	10,607	11,185	578
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,584	2,584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		32,969	33,547	578
Total		32,969	33,547	578