PVC: Futures officially entered one million positions, Masukang downward and empty positions were obviously open, and the spot market weakened

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October 18, 2023, 4:47 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 18 V2401 contract opening price: 5920, highest price: 5968, lowest price: 5864, position: 1004896, settlement price: 5922, yesterday settlement: 5937, down: 15, daily trading volume: 1034116 lots, precipitated capital: 4.131 billion, capital inflow: 74.77 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.17	Price 10.18	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5710-5750	5690-5750	-20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5790-5870	5790-5870	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5850-5950	5850-5930	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5750-5900	5700-5900	-50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5830-5850	5820-5830	-10/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5800	5600-5750	0/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price trend has been divided, can still maintain a stable operation in the morning, spot prices fell slightly in the afternoon. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10-20 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises still continue to wait and see factory prices, individual enterprises began to reduce 50 yuan / ton. The decline in futures futures prices has led to a lack of mentality among spot traders, especially a lower price offer in the afternoon compared with yesterday, but the point price source has an advantage, and the basis offer is partially weaker than yesterday. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-90), North 01 contract-(400-520), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, even if there is a certain advantage in the spot price, the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is generally on the low side, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the low price is dominated by hanging orders. Ethylene method synchronous downlink quotation, transaction aspect is also light.

From the futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened slightly higher, opened low and went higher, but the upward range was not large. After the start of morning trading, there was a peak of 5968, and then the price began to fluctuate, especially in the afternoon, and the decline did not stop in late trading. 2401 contracts range from 5864 to 5968 throughout the day, with a spread of 104. 01 contracts with an increase of 25861 positions and 1004896 hands so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5989, with 116122 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the overall performance of nbsp; PVC2401 contract futures is weak. After experiencing the low horizontal trading, today's disk futures once again showed an obvious weakening trend, refreshing the recent low of 5864 became a new low, and the open position increased downside short opening more frequently. In terms of trading, the short opening rate was 26.8% compared with 21.5% higher. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are all downward, and the KD lines and MACD lines at the daily level show a dead-fork trend. The disk shows an empty situation, each trend line is obviously weak, and there is a continuous empty force on the disk. In the short term, the operating pressure of the futures price is still large, the continuous increase of positions and short-term opening materials in the short term or further down, there is pressure on the short-term operation of the futures price.

Spot: from the post-holiday spot market continues to operate in a depressed atmosphere, and light transactions in the case of insufficient orders for terminal products enterprises are also faced with the situation of procurement is not active. Today, the two markets weakened again in the afternoon. On the one hand, in view of the hedging policies entered by the pressure of spot sales, on the other hand, at the close of the afternoon, the main Chinese futures contracts were mixed, with coke, coking coal and butadiene rubber (BR) falling by more than 3% and methanol, starch and pulp by more than 2%. PVC also followed the commodity sentiment into a weaker situation. PVC fundamentals in recent calcium carbide prices have been weak downside, insufficient cost support. In addition, the outer plate of Formosa Plastics prices fell sharply yesterday, Taiwan Formosa Plastics PVC11 monthly shipments fell by US $100. In addition, according to today's real estate data, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2023, national investment in real estate development totaled 8.7269 trillion yuan, down 9.1 percent from a year earlier (down 8.8 percent from January to August). On the whole, the operating pressure of the two cities is greater, and the spot market price may still face the test in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.17	Price 10.18	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5918	5872	-46
	Average spot price in East China	5830	5830	0
	Average spot price in South China	5900	5890	-10
	PVC2401 basis difference	-88	-42	46
	V2405 collection	6028	5989	-39
	V2401-2405 closed	-110	-117	-7
	PP2401 collection	7452	7421	-31
	Plastic L2401 collection	7998	7931	-67
	V--PP basis difference	-1534	-1549	-15
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2080	-2059	21

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 9.89, or 0.17%, to 5804.13 on October 18. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6123.42, down 30.23, or 0.491%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 319.29.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.17 warehouse orders	10.18 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,343	51
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,209	9,269	60
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		29,881	29,992	111
Total		29,881	29,992	111