PVC: Futures are arranged sideways at low positions, running high points are relatively small, and the spot part is slightly stronger. Please choose an application

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October 13, 2023, 4:31 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 13 V2401 contract opening price: 5975, highest price: 5985, lowest price: 5923, position: 947484, settlement price: 5952, yesterday settlement: 5939, up: 13, daily trading volume: 774683 lots, precipitated capital: 3.95 billion, capital inflow: 24.59 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.12	Price 10.13	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5730-5800	5730-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5780-5910	5800-5910	20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5860-5950	5870-5950	10/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5750-5950	5750-5950	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5830-5850	5830-5850	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5650-5850	5650-5850	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly in some areas, the spot market slightly stronger. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is up 20 yuan / ton, South China is 10 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises basically remained stable, individual ethylene production enterprises slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton, but there were few contracts signed on Friday. The futures market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the offers of traders in some areas of the spot market increased slightly, while those in some areas continued to sort out mainly, and it was difficult to close the deal with a high offer. The basis offer has not changed much compared with yesterday, and the point price supply still has a price advantage, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-100-130), South China 01 contract-(0-50), North 01 contract-(380-400-490), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the individual supply in the spot market is slightly tight and the price is slightly higher, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and most enterprises have a strong wait-and-see intention.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading high opened low, intraday futures prices from a high of 5985 showed a certain weakening trend. Prices rose slightly after the start of morning trading, but the highs did not exceed the night highs, and afternoon prices were narrowly sorted out to the end. 2401 contracts range from 5923 to 5985 throughout the day, with a price spread of 62. 01 contracts with an increase of 7950 positions and 947484 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6063, with 108757 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices have been trading horizontally for three consecutive days since the low, but the high has slightly advanced, and the market has still slightly increased its positions during the Friday session, with 25.4% short opening versus 22.6% more trading. At present, the position of the disk is high, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks are still open downward, the slight advance of the futures price makes the KD line at the daily level to cross first, but the trend of MACD dead fork is still large. At present, the guidance from fundamentals, policies and commodity sentiment is insufficient, so in the short term, we may judge the operation of futures prices or continue to advance slightly, making the high point further rise, but the pressure above is greater. Observe the performance of the pressure in 6000.

Spot: & the low horizontal trend of nbsp; futures does not guide the spot market, the performance of the spot market is poor on Friday, the feedback from traders in all regions is mainly light, the downstream products enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the pick-up activity is not high. At present, in terms of PVC fundamentals, the starting load of chlor-alkali production units is stable, although the current price is downward, but it is not enough to make production enterprises reduce the load, but the weakness of demand is a consensus, and high inventory under the game of supply and demand is also normal. Recently, the export side has not heard of a better inquiry, the order price improved in the early part of the week and weakened in the later period, and the overall de-treasury of domestic trade is not ideal. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market were mixed, while US benchmark WTI oil prices continued to close lower, as official data confirmed a higher-than-expected surge in US crude oil inventories last week and an unexpected rebound in US inflation, which meant that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, driving the dollar stronger. On the whole, the spot market still continues to face the trend of low and narrow arrangement.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.12	Price 10.13	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5968	5955	-13
	Average spot price in East China	5845	5855	10
	Average spot price in South China	5905	5910	5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-123	-100	23
	V2405 collection	6067	6063	-4
	V2401-2405 closed	-99	-108	-9
	PP2401 collection	7462	7473	11
	Plastic L2401 collection	8037	8021	-16
	V--PP basis difference	-1494	-1518	-24
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2069	-2066	3

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC rose 4.09, or 0.07%, to 5836.95 on October 13. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6211.83, up 24.1%, the range is 0.389%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 374.88.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.12 warehouse orders	10.13 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,124	9,124	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,562	3,162	600
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		29,196	29,796	600
Total		29,196	29,796	600