PVC: Futures are intertwined at low levels, with positions approaching one million, and fluctuations in the spot market are narrowing

89,873

October 11, 2023, 4:41 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 11 V2401 contract opening price: 5900, highest price: 5943, lowest price: 5872, position: 951458, settlement price: 5908, yesterday settlement: 5968, down: 60, daily trading volume: 1022510 lots, precipitated capital: 3.95 billion, capital inflow: 92.41 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.10	Price 10.11	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5780-5820	5730-5800	-50/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5780-5910	5780-5870	0/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5890-5970	5850-5930	-40/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5850-5950	5750-5950	-100/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5830-5900	5830-5850	0/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5700-5850	5650-5850	-50/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price narrow range arrangement mainly, price change is small. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-50 yuan / ton in North China, 40 yuan / ton in East China, 40 yuan / ton in South China, 100 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory price part to maintain wait-and-see, but there are still some enterprises to make up and lower factory quotations, including the previous higher quotations and ethylene companies are also down, futures low operation fluctuation range is small, the spot market quotations in various regions are not big, but there are still some areas weak finishing, a lower price offer than yesterday, higher offer is more difficult to close a deal. The price is mainly sold, and the base offer is chaotic and weak in some areas, including East China 01 contract-(50-100-130), South China 01 contract-(0-50-80) good fan + 20, North 01 contract-(380-400-480), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Today's spot market trading atmosphere is general, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading narrow volatility, futures prices rose slightly after a low of 5872. After the start of morning trading, it fluctuated on the basis of night trading, the fluctuation was relatively narrow, and there was no obvious trend in the afternoon price trend. 2401 contracts range from 5872 to 5943 throughout the day, with a price spread of 71. 01. The contract increased its position by 18960 hands, and so far it holds 951458 hands. The 2405 contract closed at 6021, with 98994 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices have reached a recent low of 5872, down 760 points from a high of 6632 on Sept. 7. And the change of the futures price trend is relatively sharp, today's trading is still slightly better with short opening, of which the empty opening is 25.8% compared with 22.2% more. The technical level shows that the opening of the underrail in the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is obvious downward, and the MACD still shows an obvious dead fork trend, but there is a crossing trend on the KD line. With the passage of time, after digesting the bearish factors and sentiment of the outer disk, the overall commodities have a trend of stabilizing at a low level, so in the short term, we think that the operation of futures prices may show a trend of continuous recognition of low levels, and there is a chance that prices will be repaired upwards. continue to observe the performance of 5900 support.

Spot aspect: period although the operation of the two cities has a low performance today, but the overall trend is basically in low and narrow finishing, as we expected, there is a certain support winding performance in 5900, the substantial increase in positions for three consecutive days makes the position close to one million, and the spot market is also gradually approaching the previous annual lowest in the continuous decline of medium and low prices. From the short-term point of view, we believe that there are still certain expectations from the current time node, economic growth expectations and policy ports, but after a deep decline in the current two cities, even if the price repair material high point will be limited, but there are still opportunities in the short-term two cities. The long-term angle 01 contract and the spot market in January are still facing overall weak pressure. The downward price of the upstream production enterprises reduced more, on the one hand, fewer new orders during the holiday period, resulting in part of the inventory accumulation, coupled with the weakening trading volume of the two cities after the holiday, so the downgrade of the upstream market further contributed to the bearish sentiment. Looking at the PVC spot market or the same futures market as a whole, the trend of low-level confirmation stabilizing and narrow-band consolidation continues.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.10	Price 10.11	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5909	5930	21
	Average spot price in East China	5860	5825	-35
	Average spot price in South China	5930	5890	-40
	PVC2401 basis difference	-49	-105	-56
	V2405 collection	6008	6021	13
	V2401-2405 closed	-99	-91	8
	PP2401 collection	7460	7458	-2
	Plastic L2401 collection	8025	8032	7
	V--PP basis difference	-1551	-1528	23
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2116	-2102	14

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 34.9% to 5823.58, or 0.596%, on October 11. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6196.99, down 92.64, or 1.473%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 373.41.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.10 warehouse orders	10.11 warehouse receipts	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,944	9,064	120
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,562	-20
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		29,036	29,136	100
Total		29,036	29,136	100