PVC: Futures broke the track and fell deeply. Shorts returned. The volume of positions continued to increase, and the basis of spot price strengthened slightly.

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October 10, 2023, 4:33 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 10 V2401 contract opening price: 6008, highest price: 6021, lowest price: 5907, position: 932496, settlement price: 5968, yesterday settlement: 6048, down: 80, daily trading volume: 890685 lots, precipitated capital: 3.857 billion, capital inflow: 179 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.9	Price 10.10	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5870-5920	5780-5820	-90/-100	Send to cash remittance
East China	5900-5990	5810-5910	-90/-80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5970-6070	5890-5970	-80/-100	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6000	5850-5950	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5870-5900	5830-5900	-40/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5800-5950	5700-5850	-100/-100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to weaken, the current performance of both markets are poor. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 90-100 yuan / ton in North China, 80-90 yuan / ton in East China, 80-100 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 40 yuan / ton in Central China and 100 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices continue to reduce 50-100 yuan / ton, East China, South China off-site warehouse prices also fell, and upstream enterprises generally downgrade, some enterprises on the basis of yesterday again today to reduce the price action. The offer mentality of various regions in the spot market is weak, the price offer is lower than yesterday, and it is difficult to have a single transaction at one price, the point price supply has a price advantage, and the basis offer is stronger than yesterday. East China base difference offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-80) good powder + 20, North 01 contract-(380-400-450), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Today, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches of the spot market is general, and some traders receive the goods.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading to maintain a narrow range of volatility, intraday volatility direction is not obvious. After the start of morning trading, futures fluctuated lower, iterative afternoon prices weakened further, and closed at a low in late trading. 2401 contracts range from 5907 to 6021 throughout the day, with a spread of 114,01and an increase of 57974 positions in the contract, with 932496 hands held so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6008, with 95911 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price continued to decline on the basis of yesterday, together with the double section before the plate, the overall price trend showed 9 consecutive negative trend, after the opening for two consecutive days showed a substantial increase in positions, the current market position of more than 930000 hands once again close to the previous high position, in terms of trading, among which the short opening is 28.3% compared with 22.9%, and the downside of the increase shows a slightly short trend. And on the basis of the continuous substantial increase in positions without closing the positions, there is further pressure on the trend of futures prices. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is enlarged, and the appearance of the deep fall indicates that the performance will not be too high even if the price is repaired later. In the short term, the operation of futures prices may continue to face pressure, observe the performance of the lower rail support 5900 direction.

Spot aspect: & the continuous decline of the two cities in the nbsp; period did not lead to the improvement of actual order transactions today, some traders took the goods, and downstream products enterprises began to wait and see. First of all, from the current market trend, in the case of a substantial increase of 130000 hands in Cangyu for two consecutive days, short sentiment appeared on the disk, which also led to the late repair height or will be limited. So far, compared with the recent 9 consecutive negative conditions in the third quarter, it has basically given up the overall increase in the third quarter. And the continuous weak operation has brought a lot of pressure to the sales of traders. In the short term, some of the high-priced goods before the festival have lost money on the basis of no hedging. The upstream production enterprises are also faced with the situation of poor digestion of inventory after the holiday, and the pressure on high inventory is increasing. In addition, commodity sentiment in China weakened, the cultural index closed down in the afternoon, and the overall short-term PVC spot market may still be running low.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.9	Price 10.10	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6008	5909	-99
	Average spot price in East China	5945	5860	-85
	Average spot price in South China	6020	5930	-90
	PVC2401 basis difference	-63	-49	14
	V2405 collection	6099	6008	-91
	V2401-2405 closed	-91	-99	-8
	PP2401 collection	7586	7460	-126
	Plastic L2401 collection	8125	8025	-100
	V--PP basis difference	-1578	-1551	27
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2117	-2116	1

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index fell 79.37, or 1.337%, to 5858.48 on October 10. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6289.63, down 68.34, or 1.075%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 431.15.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.9 warehouse orders	10.10 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,705	8,944	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		28,734	29,036	0
Total		28,734	29,036	0