PVC: Futures gapped lower and opened below the beginning of 6, significantly increased positions by 70,000 lots, and the spot weakened on the first day of opening

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October 9, 2023, 4:42 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 9 V2401 contract opening price: 6033, highest price: 6095, lowest price: 5995, position: 874522, settlement price: 6048, yesterday settlement: 6148, down: 100, daily trading volume: 741132 lots, precipitated capital: 4.203 billion, capital inflow: 252 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.8	Price 10.9	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5950-5980	5870-5920	-80/-60	Send to cash remittance
East China	5950-6000	5900-5990	-50/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5990-6100	5970-6070	-20/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6050	5900-6000	0/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5920-5950	5870-5900	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5850-6000	5800-5950	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices declined in various regions, and market prices fell on the first day of trading. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 60-80 yuan / ton in North China, 10-50 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price part of the reduction of 50-100 yuan / ton, including off-site warehouse prices synchronous downward, but some enterprises do not report stable prices wait and see. The trend of futures dived downwards as expected, and the price offer of traders in various regions of the spot market was lowered, while the higher offer did not have the advantage of a single small negotiation, and most of the point-price shipments after the futures price went down. among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-100), North 01 contract-(400-450), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, today's transaction is OK, there is procurement enthusiasm in the lower reaches of the point price, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment at every low price.

From the futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened low on the first day of trading, and then the futures price slightly repaired the upside but was not strong enough. The high price only returned to the low level after 6095, and the afternoon price continued to fall below the 6000 mark. 2401 contracts range from 5995 to 6095 throughout the day, with a spread of 100,001 and an increase of 69610 positions, with 874522 hands held so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6099, with 89677 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price operation jump low open, the futures price weakened obviously, and the intraday significantly increased Cangyu more than 70, 000 hands closed part of the late trading. In terms of transaction, the empty opening of 30.4% compared with 24.8% is absolutely suppressed, showing a negative column and a longer upper shadow line, which highlights more partial air force. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) diverges, the opening of the lower rail in the middle rail of the Bolin belt is obvious downward, the upper rail is flat to the opening, and the daily KD line and MACD line tend to expand. At the close of midday trading, most of the main Chinese futures contracts fell, with crude oil futures leading the decline. On the whole, the short-term of the PVC main contract will still show a glued finishing trend, and continue to observe the performance of a hundred points above and below the six-word prefix.

Spot aspect: The sharp decline of crude oil during the holiday period showed a negative trend of trading on the first day of trading, and PVC also followed the market with a clear jump and low opening, and the intraday price further fell, the spot market mentality fell further, but the spot market mentality was negative, but the spot price was OK, the rigid demand of downstream products enterprises was still there, and there was a certain speculative price psychology under the current price, some chose the disk to enter the multi-order, and part of the spot price was low to replenish the stock. The current PVC fundamentals, supply and demand level is stable and little change, but the recent decline in calcium carbide prices, coupled with the weakening of crude oil, the lack of cost port support. In addition, at present, there is no clear policy stimulus at the macro level, so commodities have traded the outer disk after the festival, but from the current time node in October, there is still a certain expectation of repair for Chinese goods in the middle line, but the high point may be difficult to surpass the previous high. there is still some pressure in the long term. In the short term, spot market prices may still face the situation of low shock consolidation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.28	Price 10.9	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6137	6008	-129
	Average spot price in East China	6030	5945	-85
	Average spot price in South China	6100	6020	-80
	PVC2401 basis difference	-107	-63	44
	V2405 collection	6192	6099	-93
	V2401-2405 closed	-55	-91	-36
	PP2401 collection	7746	7586	-160
	Plastic L2401 collection	8247	8125	-122
	V--PP basis difference	-1609	-1578	31
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2110	-2117	-7

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 41.12, or 0.688%, to 5937.85 on October 9. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6357.97, down 45.27, or 0.707%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 420.12.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.28 warehouse orders	10.9 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,705	8,944	239
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,844	63
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		28,734	29,036	302
Total		28,734	29,036	302