PVC: Futures prices continue to hover low, leaving the market before the festival, and the atmosphere in the spot market is not good

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September 25, 2023, 4:39 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 25th V2401 contract opening price: 6312, highest price: 6329, lowest price: 3219, position: 824509, settlement price: 6271, yesterday settlement: 6279, down: 8, daily trading volume: 1119693 lots, precipitated capital: 3.605 billion, capital outflow: 64.06 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.22	Price 9.25	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6080-6150	6060-6120	-20/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6090-6190	6090-6190	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6170-6260	6150-6250	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6050-6200	6050-6200	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6080-6120	6080-6120	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6050-6200	6050-6200	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices in various regions weak finishing, the market atmosphere is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell 20-30 yuan / ton in North China, stable in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, and stable in Northeast, Central China and Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton, including synchronous downside of ethylene enterprises and quotations from different places. The trend of the futures price is still weak, the quotation mentality of various regions of the spot market is lacking, and there are still sporadic adjustments in some areas. after the current downward fluctuation of the futures price, the price advantage of the point price source is highlighted, but the basis offer has changed little compared with last Friday. part of the supply base in various regions is tight and even slightly stronger, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-130-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-100). North 01 contract-(350-400-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, it coincides with Monday, the spot market talks more, some merchants have replenishment psychology, but the hanging order point is generally low, so the spot market turnover on Monday is general.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened high and low last week, and there was a certain downward trend in the night market. Prices continued to decline after the start of morning trading on Monday, but failed to fall below the 6200 mark, with afternoon lows as low as 6219. 2401 contracts range from 6219 to 6329 throughout the day, with a spread of 110. 01. The contract reduced its position by 7193 positions and has held 824509 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6304, with 72740 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price operation compared with the operating range last Friday is almost no different, but the low point is slightly lower, and showed a state of reducing positions, on the one hand, considering the departure in the early National Day holiday, some funds closed positions ahead of time to avoid risk. On the other hand, in the downward part of the futures price, the profit-taking of high short orders and the closing of positions in low hedging policies showed a slight trend of reducing positions on Monday. However, the operating low of the futures price continues to break through the support level of the lower track to show a deep downward trend. The technical level shows that all the openings of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are downward, and the KD lines and MACD lines at the daily level continue to show a dead-forked trend. In the short term, the operation of futures prices may still hover at low levels, and there is a risk of further downside, so observe the performance of the 6200 front line.

Spot: although the spot market price has certain advantages, but the real order replenishment transaction is better after last Friday's price decline, so although the fluctuation range of the futures price on Monday is little different from that of last Friday, the corresponding transaction turns to light, and product companies tend to hang orders at a lower point. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices began sporadic increase of 50 yuan / ton, some enterprises began to plan October maintenance, currently involved in enterprises are Shandong Xinfa, Tianjin LG, Gansu Yinguang, Shaanxi Beiyuan, Tangshan Sanyou, Xinjiang Zhongtai Shengxiong plant, Ordos and so on. However, at present, the supply and demand level is insufficient for the market, and the spot market may show a situation of 90% cash, and the operating atmosphere of the two cities is slightly empty. At present, we are immediately facing the National Day short holiday, and the spot market has not heard of the emergence of a larger intention to hoard goods. Take-as-you-go and high inventory have become the consensus of the current industrial chain. In addition, there are no positive factors at the current economic and policy level. As a whole, the spot market may still fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.22	Price 9.25	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6303	6247	-56
	Average spot price in East China	6140	6140	0
	Average spot price in South China	6215	6200	-15
	PVC2401 basis difference	-163	-107	56
	V2405 collection	6363	6304	-59
	V2401-2405 closed	-60	-57	3
	PP2401 collection	7889	7789	-100
	Plastic L2401 collection	8295	8258	-37
	V--PP basis difference	-1586	-1542	44
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1992	-2011	-19

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 8.48, or 0.138%, to 6135.7 on September 25. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6330.62, down 37.23, with a range of 0.585%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 194.92.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.22 warehouse orders	9.25 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,392	1,292	-100
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,209	9,224	15
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,781	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	0	-30
PVC subtotal		29,368	29,253	-115
Total		29,368	29,253	-115