Introduction: September comes as promised. In the first ten days of September, under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand and the coexistence of good and bad, the upsurge expectation has not been realized. After entering the last ten days, with the boost of the downstream pre-festival stock and the restart of some systems, the center of gravity of the market has moved up, but the range is limited.

Last week, the methanol market price opened strongly under the boost of the strong cost side and the news of Xingxing MTO plant restart, and the futures market rose strongly. The highest price of the week broke through the 2660 mark, and the highest price reached 2662. Chinese market sentiment also improved, the market trading atmosphere improved significantly, the offer price in the main northwest producing areas was higher and the bidding situation was better, and the closing price in northern Shandong rose synchronously on Tuesday. The auction price of some manufacturers in Shanxi rose by about 100 yuan per ton on Tuesday, and the overall market price rose a lot, but the good times did not last long. After entering the middle of the week, the macro outlook was bearish, coupled with the lower-than-expected mood of stock preparation before the festival. The trading atmosphere in the Chinese market quickly weakened, and the futures market fell to the 2550 mark.

In terms of cost: recently, the safety inspection of coal mines in many places in the market has become stricter, and some coal mines have stopped production and rectification, resulting in a reduction in market supply in some regions, coupled with the demand for replenishment in the non-electricity industry before the festival, supported by increased demand. the price of coal has increased and the cost of methanol from coal has increased, but at present, the spot price of methanol is high and the profits of coal-to-methanol enterprises have been compressed, as of September 22. The profit of coal-to-methanol enterprises is about 140 yuan.

From the supply point of view: recently, there are few maintenance devices planned in the Chinese market, and the start-up of the market is maintained at a high level. Although some devices are accidentally stopped, it is difficult to stop or the negative reduction devices continue to recover. Boyuan, Ningxia Heming, Shanghai Huayi, Shenglong Chemical and other devices have started one after another, Xinjiang Xinye, Inner Mongolia Xinao Phase I methanol plant temporarily stopped, Hebi coal chemical plant stopped and overhauled, the market supply fluctuation is limited. However, considering that the profits of some enterprises are OK at present, we do not rule out the possibility that the output will continue to increase in the later stage, and we should pay close attention to the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.

Recently, the market inventory in the port area is also in a state of continuous accumulation, although the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but in recent months, the arrival of imported goods to the port has also maintained a high position, resulting in an increasing trend in the number of port arrivals in China since May.

From the demand point of view: as the traditional downstream gradually gets rid of the off-season of consumption, the start-up of the downstream market is also gradually increasing, but the inventory of enterprises downstream of the terminal has always maintained a relatively high level, resulting in insufficient efforts for downstream enterprises to keep up with the rise. The phenomenon of "peak season is not prosperous" appears, and although it is approaching the "double-festival" holiday, the trading volume of the downstream market has not reached expectations.

In the short term, next week is the last week before the festival, and some upstream manufacturers still have a certain demand for inventory, but at present, with high coal prices and strong support at the cost end, the price reduction in the spot market may be relatively limited, although there is still a certain stock demand downstream, but the overall strength may be limited. Generally speaking, it is expected that the short-term methanol spot market will fluctuate mainly, and in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil and coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.