PVC: The futures price broke through the lower track and fell deeply. The intraday increased positions significantly, and the spot low continued to weaken.

86,090

September 22, 2023, 4:11 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 22nd V2401 contract opening price: 6320, highest price: 6335, lowest price: 6232, position: 831702, settlement price: 6279, yesterday settlement: 6378, down: 99, daily trading volume: 1402690 lots, precipitated capital: 3.67 billion, capital inflow: 119 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.21	Price 9.22	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6180-6240	6080-6150	-100/-90	Send to cash remittance
East China	6210-6310	6090-6190	-120/-120	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6250-6360	6170-6260	-80/-100	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6100-6300	6050-6200	-50/-100	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6170-6200	6080-6120	-90/-80	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6100-6250	6050-6200	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market continue to weaken and decline again on the basis of yesterday's decline. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 90-100 yuan / ton in North China, 120 yuan / ton in East China, 80-100 yuan / ton in South China, 50-100 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 80-90 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises most of the factory prices down quotation, the range is concentrated in 50-120 yuan / ton or so, including the simultaneous downward price of off-site warehouse, the other part of the ethylene process enterprises closed. The futures price continued to weaken obviously, and the spot market traders made a sharp drop in the price offer, but after the futures price fell, the point price source price advantage was more obvious, and the basis offer changed little compared with yesterday. Among them, East China basis offer 01 contract-(60-130-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-100), North 01 contract-(350-400-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Based on the low point of the disk, the transaction in some areas has improved, and the product enterprises mainly replenish goods at a low price, and the transaction is better than the early period of the week.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night futures prices continue to decline, intraday prices fell significantly, after the beginning of early trading prices fell to the lowest point 6232, bottomed out and rebounded, afternoon prices basically around the narrow range of 6280-6300. 2401 contracts range from 6232 to 6335 throughout the day, with a spread of 103. 01 contracts with an increase of 27441 positions and 831702 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6363, with 72299 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract futures prices run on the basis of yesterday, futures prices continue to decline, falling below the 6300 mark, the lowest point hit 6232, intraday trading once showed an obvious short-opening trend, the highest increase Cangyu more than 47000 hands, but in late trading some loose orders fled on the one hand, the futures price rebounded on the one hand, on the other hand, part of the intra-day trading completed profit-taking. The operation of the futures week opened and closed. At first, the futures price rose sharply to above 6500, but the high price fell significantly for two consecutive days only in a short time. The decline is down 400 points from a high of 6632 so far. And the technical level shows that the low point of the futures price quickly breaks through the support level of the lower track and falls further. However, we do not believe that it has effectively fallen further below the 6250 position in the short term, and we will continue to observe the performance of the nearby position.

Spot: spot market feedback as we expected, the downward price below 6300 led to an improvement in transactions, price enquiries are active and there is a certain replenishment sentiment, on the one hand, downstream enterprises face short holidays, futures prices down low point if there is no replenishment or face the National Day price problem, so the spot market transaction after the futures price decline is more active than the high period of the week. On the other hand, the downward fall of futures prices caused some spot traders to have a certain degree of panic, and at present, we think that there are some risks and the basis is not appropriate to consider. PVC fundamentals still do not see a large variable, but the current time node to consider how to leave the pre-festival funds. On the outer disk, oil prices closed lower in volatile trading as new US labor market data provided a reason for the Fed to continue to tighten monetary policy, but Russia announced a ban on refined oil exports to curb the decline in oil prices. On the whole, the spot market may be arranged in a narrow range on the current basis in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.21	Price 9.22	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6307	6303	-4
	Average spot price in East China	6260	6140	-120
	Average spot price in South China	6305	6215	-90
	PVC2401 basis difference	-47	-163	-116
	V2405 collection	6359	6363	4
	V2401-2405 closed	-52	-60	-8
	PP2401 collection	7876	7889	13
	Plastic L2401 collection	8273	8295	22
	V--PP basis difference	-1569	-1586	-17
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1966	-1992	-26

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 94.87, or 1.521%, to 6144.18 on Sept. 22. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6367.85, down 57.3%, or 0.892%. The calcium carbide method index fell, the ethylene method index dropped, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 223.67.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.21 warehouse receipts	9.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,392	1,392	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,314	9,209	-105
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,781	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	30	0
PVC subtotal		29,473	29,368	-105
Total		29,473	29,368	-105