PVC: Futures continue to weaken and open obviously. The quarterly market is over and there are deals at low spot prices.

85,980

September 14, 2023, 4:39 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 14 V2401 contract opening price: 6385, highest price: 6423, lowest price: 6330, position: 781882, settlement price: 6376, yesterday settlement: 6471, down: 95, daily trading volume: 1296112 lots, precipitated capital: 3.5 billion, capital inflow: 50.44 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.13	Price 9.14	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6230-6300	6200-6270	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6300-6400	6210-6300	-90/-100	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6300-6490	6280-6400	-20/-90	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6250-6400	6250-6400	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6350-6400	6250-6400	-100/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6150-6300	6150-6250	0/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment has weakened. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is loose, and some enterprises begin to reduce 50-100 yuan / ton, including the simultaneous reduction of prices in different places. The futures market continued to weaken obviously, the overall price of the spot market fell sharply, and each region offered a price without a market, and there were few transactions. However, after the futures price went down, the point price transaction increased. Base offers have strengthened, including East China 01 contract-(50-80-130), South China 01 contract-(50-100) good fans + 10, North 01 contract-(350-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). The decline in futures prices led to some point price transactions, downstream low prices are mainly pending orders, but most tend to lower prices, although there are transactions but it is difficult to improve.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night price volatility narrowed, but late trading has shown signs of weakness. After the start of morning trading, futures continued to weaken slightly, bottoming out at the lowest point of 6330, but not strong enough. Continue the small-scale concussion until the end in the afternoon. 2401 contracts range from 6330 to 6423 throughout the day, with a spread of 93. 01 contracts with an increase of 10060 positions and 781882 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6444, with 59185 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices continued to decline, but bottomed out after the intraday low of 6330. From the current time node and mood, first of all, the rising market in the third quarter currently has a tendency to end, although it is still in a relatively high range, but the momentum to continue to rise has been insufficient, real estate can not form an effective reversal in a short period of time. On the other hand, the digestion speed of PVC spot is slow, and the entry of hedging empty order always affects the rhythm of the disk and the industrial chain. Futures prices have fallen 302 points since their peak of 6632. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is narrowed, and the operation of the futures price begins to enter the range between the middle and lower tracks. Continue to observe the performance in the range of 6300-6450 in the short term.

Spot: & the downward price of nbsp; futures led to some point transactions, but most of the single-point positions are generally low, while the low period of time is relatively short, that is, the rebound, so today's spot market has transactions but it is difficult to show optimism. At present, the fundamental variables of PVC are still insufficient. In mid-September, the start-up load of PVC plant is stable, but the demand continues to be weak, and the monthly performance of real estate data is poor, even in the fourth quarter, it is difficult to usher in a better presentation, so PVC, as a symbol of the real estate sector, still faces greater operating pressure in the fourth quarter in the future. In the short term, there are signs of the end of the upward market, but consider or pre-festival small stock, so for the short-term market or there will not be a deep fall, most of the small shock operation. In the outer disk, international oil prices fell as data released by the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil stocks and refined oil stocks rose last week. In addition, demand concerns caused by global macroeconomic headwinds are a drag on oil prices. On the whole, the spot market of PVC is narrowly arranged in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.13	Price 9.14	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6385	6395	10
	Average spot price in East China	6350	6255	-95
	Average spot price in South China	6395	6340	-55
	PVC2401 basis difference	-35	-140	-105
	V2405 collection	6420	6444	24
	V2401-2405 closed	-35	-49	-14
	PP2401 collection	7966	7957	-9
	Plastic L2401 collection	8358	8349	-9
	V--PP basis difference	-1581	-1562	19
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1973	-1954	19

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index fell 55.08, or 0.87%, to 6277.6 on Sept. 14. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6548.12, down 63.2%, with a range of 0.956%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 270.52.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.13 warehouse orders	9.14 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	280	280	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	280	280	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,417	3,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,392	1,392	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,295	1,329	34
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,177	9,592	415
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	33	33	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,181	2,181	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	0	-50
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	41	274	233
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	30	0
PVC subtotal		30,405	31,037	632
Total		30,405	31,037	632