Methanol: Futures fluctuated and fell in China's trading atmosphere is weak
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September 13, 2023, 4:56 PM On September 13, the methanol market price index was 2303.61, down 0.94 from yesterday and 0.04 per cent from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on September 12:
China CFR 282-292 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton
European FOB 228-230euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton
Us FOB 75-77 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 329.25-330.25 US dollars / ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: 2100-2180 (- 40), Lunan: 2400-2420 (- 20), Henan: 2320-2370 (- 10), Shanxi: 2240-2290 (- 10), Port: 2485,2520 (- 15)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 180-270 (0Universe Mel 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-300 (- 20mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (- 20mp mer 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-230 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price volatility of methanol market is weak, the futures market is consolidated after the fall of the futures market, the overall negotiation atmosphere in the Chinese market is weak, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market is not high, and the transaction is general. Specifically, the market atmosphere in the main producing areas continues to weaken, and some holders give way to shipments. today, the bidding prices of enterprises such as Rongxin and Yulin Yanzhou Mining have been reduced, and the starting bidding price of Rongxin in Inner Mongolia has been reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 2100 yuan / ton. the quantity is 7000 tons, a small number of transactions. The starting bidding price of Yulin Yanzhou Mining has been reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 2100 yuan / ton, with a quantity of 5000 tons and a small number of transactions. The price of methanol in Xinao, Inner Mongolia, was lowered to 2100 yuan / ton, with a slightly mediocre trading atmosphere. Consumer market prices fell partially, southern Shandong 2400-2420 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 20 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2370-2380 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current mindset of market operators are cautious, downstream more on-demand purchases, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2240-2290 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2310-2360 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2410-2480 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the market continues smoothly, the negotiations on the market are flat, and the rigid demand for purchasing downstream of the terminal is the main. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: today, methanol futures fell in early trading and consolidated at afternoon lows. Spot holding price sale; long-term unilateral low price to receive goods, the selling period is now set, the basis is strong; frequent replacements in recent months. The whole-day deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2485-2520, base difference 01-45 buyer 42bot 9 deal: 2490-2525, base difference 01-45 Melissa 40 position 9 transaction: 2490-2545, base difference 01-32 Melissa 30 position 10 transaction: 2525-2580, basis difference 01-2580 3Universe 5.
|
Area |
2023/9/13 |
2023/9/12 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2303.61 |
2304.55 |
-0.94 |
|
Northwest |
2100-2260 |
2100-2260 |
0/0 |
|
North China |
2240-2360 |
2250-2360 |
-10/0 |
|
East China |
2485-2610 |
2500-2610 |
-15/0 |
|
South China |
2490-2600 |
2515-2600 |
-25/0 |
|
Southwest |
2410-2500 |
2410-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2350-2550 |
2350-2550 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2360-2450 |
2360-2430 |
0/20 |
|
Central China |
2320-2660 |
2330-2660 |
-10/0 |
Future forecast: on the supply side: with the return of early maintenance devices such as Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific, Shaanxi Black Cat and Wangcang Hezhong, the spot supply of upstream factories has recovered, coupled with the poor recent shipments. Chinese production enterprise inventory is not significantly reduced and traders hold more goods, port inventory continues to be accumulated, China's overall supply is relatively abundant, and some devices are still planned to restart in the later stage. The supply side may be expected to increase. On the demand side: the recent volatility of methanol futures has affected the mentality of some operators in the market to a certain extent. although methanol is in the peak season of traditional consumption as the temperature enters the downward channel, part of the inventory of downstream enterprises is still on the high side. and downstream and traders are still resistant to high-priced supply, the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high, and there is no obvious volume on the short-term demand side. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the downstream device and the downstream profit repair. At present, the performance on the supply side is average, and the demand side fluctuates slightly. Although the downstream construction is slowly improving, considering the poor profitability of some downstream enterprises and high inventory, the volume of terminal demand is temporarily limited. The trading mood of the operators in the market is cautious, and it is expected that the price or shock trend of the methanol market in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the macro policy in the later stage. Crude oil, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow up.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023/9/4 |
Ignition restart |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/1 |
2023/9/5 |
Rebooting |
|
Wangcang Hezhong Chemical Industry |
7 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/1 |
2023/9/5 |
Stable operation |
|
Shaanxi black cat |
12 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/30 |
2023/9/5 |
Stable operation |
|
Hengxin high-tech |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/9/6 |
2023/9/7 |
Stable operation |
|
Qitaihe Jiwei |
8 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/25 |
2023/9/10 |
Stable operation |
|
Qinghai Salt Lake |
100 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023/7/30 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Yunnan disintegration |
24 |
Natural gas |
2023/8/12 |
2023 / mid-September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanghai Huayi Anhui |
60 |
Coal |
2023/8/25 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 3 weeks |
|
Xinjiang heart to heart |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/25 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Ningxia Heming |
30 |
Coal |
2023/8/26 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Tianze, Shanxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/26 |
2023 / September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/28 |
2023 / September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Jiutai new material |
200 |
Coal |
2023/8/28 |
2023 / mid-September |
Fault reduction |
|
Shanxi Xiaoyi Pengfei |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/29 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Inner Mongolia Boyuan |
15 |
Natural gas |
2023/9/2 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Yulin Coal Kaiyue |
70 |
Coal |
2023/9/5 |
2023/9/10 |
Run smoothly |
|
Shandong Prosperity |
17 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/9/6 |
To be determined |
Temporary Parking |
|
Linquan, Anhui Province |
50 |
Coal |
2023/9/12 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |