PVC: Futures correction is obviously obvious and long and short positions enter the market in turn. The atmosphere of short opening suppression weakens, and the spot market declines.

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September 13, 2023, 4:34 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 13th V2401 contract opening price: 6502, highest price: 6546, lowest price: 6376, position: 771822, settlement price: 6471, yesterday settlement: 6487, down: 16, daily trading volume: 1561933 lots, precipitated capital: 3.45 billion, capital inflow: 39.38 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.12	Price 9.13	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6300-6320	6230-6300	-70/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	6320-6410	6300-6400	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6360-6500	6300-6490	-60/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6250-6400	6250-6400	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6360-6480	6350-6400	-10/-80	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6150-6300	6150-6300	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment has weakened. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-70 yuan / ton in North China, 10-20 yuan / ton in East China, 10-60 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 10-80 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises ex-factory prices still do not see obvious traces of adjustment, production enterprises did not follow the weakening of the disk to deal with, but most of the stable prices wait and see. The trend of futures prices weakened after the shock, and the prices offered by traders in the spot market fell significantly, especially in the afternoon. After the futures price goes down, both the market price offer and the point price offer are available, the relative advantage of the one price offer is not big, and the base difference of the point price is adjusted slightly, in which the East China base difference offer 01 contract-(50-80-130), South China 01 contract-(50-100) good powder + 10, North 01 contract-(350-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, downstream bargain-hunting order replenishment, the spot market trading atmosphere is general.

Futures perspective: PVC2401 contract night trading maintained a narrow range volatility, but reached an all-day high of 6546. The price continued to fluctuate after the start of morning trading, followed by a significant decline, falling below the 6400 mark in the afternoon, and the decline did not stop in late trading. 2401 contracts fluctuate in the range of 6376-6546 throughout the day, with a price difference of 170,01.01 contracts with an increase of 21387 positions and 771822 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6420, with 50815 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & after a long period of volatility, the futures price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract began to weaken at the end of the morning, and its fluctuation range was 170 points, the operation of the high and low points was expanded, and the overall operation trend showed obvious downward weakening characteristics. The technical level shows that the low point of the futures price breaks through the middle rail support level, and basically belongs to the weakening of the late trading price, and there is a certain short opening suppression in the trading, in which the short opening is 25.4% compared with the opening more than 23.3%. And Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks have a downward trend, futures prices have fallen from a high of 6632 to date, indicating the end of the market. The KD line at the daily line level shows an obvious dead-fork trend, and the operation of futures prices still has a further weakening trend in the short term. Continue to observe the support performance near 6350.

Spot: futures price decline has not led to an improvement in the spot market transactions, we have been expressing this view throughout the week, although the futures price has weakened but the current point can not stimulate active trading, rigid demand single purchase volume is not seen, and the forward purchase price of large enterprises is generally on the low side, forward pre-sale in November-December spot whether downstream enterprises or traders offer are mainly low. Therefore, for the rise of the market, from the perspective of the industrial chain, the mood to catch up is not high, especially the lack of downstream follow-up, PVC does not currently have tough fundamentals, so the market is up but the range is limited, and the horizontal downward performance is obvious on Wednesday. And middlemen in view of the pressure of sales into the hedging plate is also enough to suppress the surface, the spot market high-end delivery is more and more difficult, PVC production enterprises are also the same feedback generation contract signing is not active. On the whole, the spot market transaction in the short term may still be weak, and it is expected that if the futures price falls further, it may stimulate the improvement of the actual low order.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.12	Price 9.13	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6492	6385	-107
	Average spot price in East China	6365	6350	-15
	Average spot price in South China	6430	6395	-35
	PVC2401 basis difference	-127	-35	92
	V2405 collection	6532	6420	-112
	V2401-2405 closed	-40	-35	5
	PP2401 collection	7985	7966	-19
	Plastic L2401 collection	8402	8358	-44
	V--PP basis difference	-1493	-1581	-88
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1910	-1973	-63

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 27.04, or 0.45%, to 6332.68 on Sept. 13. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6611.32, down 3.73%, with a range of 278.64%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 278.64.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.12 warehouse orders	9.13 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	280	280	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	280	280	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,417	3,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,340	1,392	52
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,295	1,295	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,057	9,177	120
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	33	33	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,181	2,181	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	0	41	41
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	30	0
PVC subtotal		30,192	30,405	213
Total		30,192	30,405	213