PVC: Futures activity has increased more and more, funds have entered the market significantly, and spot stocks have continued to be organized in a narrow range

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September 12, 2023, 4:28 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 12 V2401 contract opening price: 6465, highest price: 6522, lowest price: 6438, position: 750435, settlement price: 6487, yesterday settlement: 6464, up: 23, daily trading volume: 1152276 lots, precipitated capital: 3.41 billion, capital inflow: 188 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.11	Price 9.12	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6300-6340	6300-6320	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	6320-6400	6320-6410	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6360-6490	6360-6500	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6250-6400	6250-6400	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6360-6480	6360-6480	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6150-6300	6150-6300	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue the trend of consolidation, but the transaction is limited. Compared with the valuation, the high-end price in North China fell by 20 yuan / ton, East China increased by 10 yuan / ton, South China increased by 10 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central and Southwest regions were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises still remain stable and wait-and-see, and very few enterprises in order to promote transaction digestion and inventory slightly reduce 50 yuan / ton, the futures price is arranged horizontally, and the spot market is quoted in the same range, the overall adjustment is not large, basically maintain the price unchanged, a small flexible offer in individual areas, the market price offer and point price offer coexist, but the two ways of transaction is not much, and some of the sources are tight. The spot price is a little higher than the offer. The terminal mainly maintains wait-and-see, and the basis adjustment is limited, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-80-130), South China 01 contract-(50-100) good fan + 10, North 01 contract-(350-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the spot market does not change much.

From the perspective of futures: PVC2401 contract opened low and high at night, and the futures price rose obviously from the low level, but the high price was unstable and fell. The price fluctuates mainly after the start of morning trading, and the price change in the afternoon is not obvious. 2401 contracts range from 6438 to 6522 throughout the day, with a spread of 84. 01 contracts with an increase of 37974 positions and 750435 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6532, with 47974 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price operation is still relatively high and narrow horizontal trading, but the trading activity increased, the intraday position increased by more than 45000 hands, and some retail investors closed their positions at the end of the day. In terms of transaction, the opening of 25.8% more than the empty order is slightly better than the empty opening of more than 24.8%. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly, it is not strong enough. On the one hand, the high futures price is still suppressed, and the spot can not digest the high level of receiving goods to enter the hedging policy. On the other hand, due to the lack of stimulus from macro and fundamental policies, it is unable to form a sustained high rise, and there is a greater risk of decline over 6500, so there is a large increase in positions in a single day, but the futures price still shows a horizontal state. We still maintain the previous point of view and continue to observe the performance of the horizontal range between 6420 and 6550.

Spot aspect: futures price continuous horizontal finishing, first of all, the current low point of the futures price can not stimulate the improvement of the point price transaction, the terminal real order multi-low hanging order rigid demand procurement, on the other hand, there are many real order negotiations in the spot offer. The current stimulus at the macro level and policy level is beginning to dissipate, and factors from fundamentals do not provide more direction of volatility. Therefore, futures prices have been trading horizontally at relatively high levels since they fell from their highs, and there is a lack of adequate guidance for price fluctuations in the two cities. However, we believe that under the current time node, there are still some risk considerations in the medium and long term of the two cities. On the outer plate, Brent crude futures prices were basically flat and remained above $90 a barrel, boosted by production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Oil prices reached this level for the first time in 10 months after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a new round of production cuts last week. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced last week that they would extend voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year, totaling 1.3 million barrels a day. Supply cuts have overshadowed continuing concerns about China's economic activity. Overall, the spot market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.11	Price 9.12	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6462	6492	30
	Average spot price in East China	6375	6365	-10
	Average spot price in South China	6425	6430	5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-87	-127	-40
	V2405 collection	6509	6532	23
	V2401-2405 closed	-47	-40	7
	PP2401 collection	7865	7985	120
	Plastic L2401 collection	8354	8402	48
	V--PP basis difference	-1403	-1493	-90
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1892	-1910	-18

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 3.96, or 0.062%, to 6359.72 on September 12. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 6615.05, up 5.15%, with a range of 0.078%. The calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index increased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 255.33.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.11 warehouse orders	9.12 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	801	843	42
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	402	42
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	280	280	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	280	280	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,197	3,417	220
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,340	1,340	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,205	1,295	90
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,672	9,057	385
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	33	33	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,591	2,181	590
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,370	2,582	212
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	30	0
PVC subtotal		28,653	30,192	1,539
Total		28,653	30,192	1,539