Methanol: Futures continue previous gains, regional trend in the Chinese market
83,916 
September 11, 2023, 5:00 PM
On Sept. 11, the methanol market price index was 2337.17, up 5.57 from the previous working day and 0.24% higher than the previous working day.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on September 8:
China CFR 280-290 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton
European FOB 232-234 yuan / ton, up 2.50 euros / ton
Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 329.5-US $330.5 / ton, up 29%. Seventy-five dollars per ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2220-2260 (30), North Route: 2140-2230 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2350-2405 (20), Shanxi: 2250-2305 (0), Port: 2500-2535 (45)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 180-280 (- 50 amp Mueller 30), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-300 (- 30 Maxime 30), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (- 20 amp Mueller 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-250 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price shock in the methanol market is strong, and the futures market continued to rise last Friday night, closing at 2551 today, an increase of 1.19%. The price trend in the Chinese market varies, and the market quotations in the main producing areas are narrowly adjusted under the support of little inventory pressure. today, the bidding prices of Yulin Yanzhou Mining and Rongxin have been raised, and the starting bidding price of Yulin Yanzhou Mining has been raised by 20 yuan / ton to 2150 yuan / ton, with a quantity of 4000 tons. Turnover of 1700 tons Inner Mongolia Rongxin's starting bidding price increased 20 yuan / ton to 2150 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the volume of 5000 tons, turnover of 2400 tons; Inner Mongolia New Olympic News to 2140-2150 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The market price of consumer land is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, operators in the market are cautious, they purchase more on demand downstream, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited, and pay attention to the bidding situation in tomorrow's market. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2250-2305 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 2350-2400 yuan / ton in Hebei, and 20 yuan / ton in the lower end. Downstream and traders are generally enthusiastic about entering the market and buying rigid demand downstream. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2410-2460 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the market continues smoothly, the negotiations on the market are flat, and the rigid demand for purchasing downstream of the terminal is the main. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Rigid demand buying and selling in recent months. Long-term arbitrage shipments are mainly, some unilateral higher than low, wait-and-see majority, the basis stabilized, the transaction is general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2455-2470, base difference 01-55 Maximus 50 position 9 in transaction: 2480-2500, base difference 01-40 Universe Melissa 35 transaction 9 transaction: 2480-2505, base difference 01-35 Accord 30 transaction 10 transaction: 2515-2530, basis difference 01mm 0Universe 5.
|
Area |
2023/9/11 |
2023/9/8 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2330.17 |
2324.60 |
5.57 |
|
Northwest |
2140-2290 |
2130-2290 |
10/0 |
|
North China |
2250-2400 |
2250-2420 |
0/-20 |
|
East China |
2500-2610 |
2455-2580 |
45/30 |
|
South China |
2530-2600 |
2480-2570 |
50/30 |
|
Southwest |
2410-2500 |
2410-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2350-2550 |
2350-2550 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2390-2480 |
2390-2500 |
0/-20 |
|
Central China |
2350-2680 |
2330-2680 |
20/0 |
Future forecast: with the recent fade of high temperature, the start-up of the traditional downstream market is slowly increasing, but according to the current recovery situation, the overall volume of terminal demand is limited, and some of the downstream inventory is in the middle and high level. the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish goods is not high, rigid demand is mainly purchasing and buying, the shipping speed of manufacturers in the main upstream production areas has slowed down, and the inventory of some manufacturers has increased slightly. Yulin device of Yanzhou Mining has returned to normal operation. The overall performance of the supply side is average. At present, with the early replenishment, traders and terminal downstream manufacturers have more supply of goods, and the enthusiasm of entering the market for replenishment is not high in the short term, although the downstream market is slowly improving. However, considering the excessive supply of goods in hand and poor corporate profits and other factors, it is difficult to achieve obvious volume in the short term, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may continue the shock trend, but we still need to pay attention to the macro policy in the later stage. Crude oil and coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow up.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023/8/26 |
Stable operation |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023/9/4 |
Ignition restart |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/1 |
2023/9/5 |
Rebooting |
|
Wangcang Hezhong Chemical Industry |
7 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/1 |
2023/9/5 |
Rebooting |
|
Shaanxi black cat |
12 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/30 |
2023/9/5 |
Load lifting |
|
Hengxin high-tech |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/9/6 |
2023/9/7 |
Device recovery |
|
Qinghai Salt Lake |
100 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023/7/30 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Yunnan disintegration |
24 |
Natural gas |
2023/8/12 |
2023 / mid-September |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanghai Huayi Anhui |
60 |
Coal |
2023/8/25 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 3 weeks |
|
Qitaihe Jiwei |
8 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/25 |
2023/9/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Xinjiang heart to heart |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/25 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Ningxia Heming |
30 |
Coal |
2023/8/26 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Tianze, Shanxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/26 |
2023 / early September |
Planned maintenance for 1 week |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/8/28 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 10 days |
|
Jiutai new material |
200 |
Coal |
2023/8/28 |
2023 / mid-September |
Fault reduction |
|
Shanxi Xiaoyi Pengfei |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/8/29 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Inner Mongolia Boyuan |
15 |
Natural gas |
2023/9/2 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Yulin Coal Kaiyue |
70 |
Coal |
2023/9/5 |
2023/9/10 |
Run smoothly |
|
Shandong Prosperity |
17 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/9/6 |
To be determined |
Temporary Parking |
|
Inner Mongolia Jiutai |
100 |
Coal |
2023/9/10 |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |