PVC: Futures ended sideways and showed weakness, transactions showed open power, and the spot market weakened within a narrow range

87,090

September 8, 2023, 4:36 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 8 V2401 contract opening price: 6520, highest price: 6534, lowest price: 6424, position: 698097, settlement price: 6477, yesterday settlement: 6539, down: 62, daily trading volume: 1246399 lots, precipitated capital: 3.141 billion, capital outflow: 92.45 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.7	Price 9.8	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6380-6420	6330-6370	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
East China	6340-6440	6300-6410	-40/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6400-6550	6380-6500	-20/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6200-6350	6200-6350	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6430-6480	6410-6480	-20/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6200-6350	6200-6350	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment has weakened. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 50 yuan / ton in North China, 30-40 yuan / ton in East China, 20-50 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Most of the upstream PVC production enterprises'ex-factory prices remain stable, and when there are few contracts signed on Friday, the production enterprises are not willing to adjust the quotation, so they still maintain a high offer, while individual enterprises in the ethylene process are reduced by 50 yuan / ton. The offer mentality of traders in various regions is weak, the offer mentality of traders in various regions is weak, the price offer is relatively high and has no advantage, and there is a certain downward trend. After the futures price goes down, the supply advantage of the point price increases, and the basis is adjusted slightly. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-80-120), South China 01 contract-(0-60) good powder + 20, North 01 contract-(350-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is low, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night volatility slightly weaker, futures prices did not show another upward trend. After the start of morning trading, the futures price continued to run in a narrow range on the basis of late night trading, but it was weaker in the afternoon, and it was weak again around the low first line of shock in the afternoon. 2401 contracts range from 6424 to 6534 throughout the day, with a spread of 110. 01. The contract reduced its position by 10623 positions and has held 698097 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6474, with 46625 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price operation did not continue to high horizontal trading above 6500 to continue to form an effective breakthrough, and even futures prices did not further stabilize the front line of 6500, coinciding with the profit settlement of some loose orders on Friday, coupled with the hedging of high prices under the weakening of commodity sentiment, and short opening forces began to appear in the market when the horizontal market did not rise. In terms of transaction, the opening of 21.7% more than the empty opening of 24.0%, the technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are narrowing, the low point of the futures price begins to approach the position of the middle track, the daily-level KD line shows a dead-fork trend, and the distance between the two lines of the MACD is rapidly shortened. As a whole, the operation of the PVC main contract may show a further weakening trend in the short term, and observe the performance of the support position near the middle rail 6380.

Spot aspect: & the weakening price of nbsp; futures market affects the quotation mentality of merchants in the spot market. On the one hand, the current decline can not stimulate the activity of spot price transactions. Downstream products enterprises are still mainly wait-and-see, and do not reach the expected psychological procurement price. On the other hand, most of the new orders received by high-price traders consider hedging combined with spot prices for sales. For this market rise we also mentioned in the previous forecast, from the fundamentals of the variable support is less, relatively early active and substantial rise in categories, PVC fundamentals are relatively weak this is also the PVC period although the two markets have upward, but the scope and strength are insufficient fundamental reasons. The weakening of the two markets on Friday also dampened the bulls' confidence to some extent. International oil prices fell on the outer disk, with Brent oil prices falling below $90 a barrel as several signals hinted at weak oil demand in the coming months. In addition, market participants digested mixed data from China. On the whole, there may be some weakening risk in the PVC spot market in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	9.7	9.8	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6518	6428	-90
	Average spot price in East China	6390	6355	-35
	Average spot price in South China	6475	6440	-35
	PVC2401 basis difference	-128	-73	55
	V2405 collection	6554	6474	-80
	V2401-2405 closed	-36	-46	-10
	PP2401 collection	7894	7822	-72
	Plastic L2401 collection	8383	8317	-66
	V--PP basis difference	-1376	-1394	-18
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1865	-1889	-24

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 29.74 or 0.465% to 6371.7 on Sept. 8. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6631.82, down 50, with a range of 0.748%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 260.12.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.7 warehouse orders	9.8 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	801	300
	Guangzhou materials	141	441	300
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	280	280	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	280	280	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	3,197	435
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	940	1,340	400
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,205	1,205	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,771	8,639	868
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	0	33	33
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,591	60
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,240	2,240	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	170	170	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	892	450	-442
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	30	30	0
PVC subtotal		26,776	28,430	1,654
Total		26,776	28,430	1,654