PVC: Futures prices suddenly rose on the list, and the tide turned to V today, and the spot market improved significantly

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September 4, 2023, 4:24 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 4 V2401 contract opening price: 6420, highest price: 6588, lowest price: 6374, position: 699223, settlement price: 6496, yesterday settlement: 6340, up: 156, daily trading volume: 1579344 lots, precipitated capital: 3.189 billion, capital inflow: 169 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.1	Price 9.4	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6130-6220	6280-6370	150/150	Send to cash remittance
East China	6230-6280	6370-6470	140/190	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6280-6360	6400-6520	120/160	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6100-6250	6200-6350	100/100	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6260-6300	6450-6480	190/180	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6050-6200	6200-6350	150/150	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rise, and the spot market is significantly better. Compared with the valuation, it rose 150 yuan / ton in North China, 140-190 yuan / ton in East China, 120-160 yuan / ton in South China, 100 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 180-190 yuan / ton in Central China and 150 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is generally increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and a few radical enterprises are directly increased by 150 yuan / ton, including ethylene enterprises. The strong upward high of the futures price continued to rise, and the offer mentality of traders in the spot market at the beginning of the week was sufficient. The price of each region went up sharply and some of the spot prices were offered, but the spot price advantage disappeared with the upward price of the futures price. East China base offer 01 contract-(50-80-120), South China 01 contract-(0-80), North 01 contract-(450), Southwest 01 contract-(260). Although the current prices of the two cities have risen sharply, but the merchants feedback that the delivery rhythm is not good, some hedgers take the goods, the actual single inquiry lacks enthusiasm, and the downstream is cautious to replenish the goods on the bargain.

From the futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened low and high on Friday night trading, showing a clear upward trend. After the start of morning trading on Monday, the futures price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the highest point of the second intraday rise to 6588, the trend remained strong, and the afternoon price fell somewhat. 2401 contracts fluctuate in the range of 6374-6588 throughout the day, with a spread of 214,01and an increase of 24015 positions, with 699223 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6539, with 41376 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2401 contract prices showed an obvious upward trend, with a sudden rise throughout the day, and the cultural goods index led the list and rose 2.73%. The sharp rise in futures prices is beyond imagination, and most of the early commodities have risen, although PVC has also improved synchronously, but the performance in the overall commodity sector is not outstanding, not like soda ash, glass and urea. However, since last Friday, PVC has received attention, and the futures price rose sharply by more than 36000 positions at one time. Although the positions were partially closed in late trading, the trading throughout the day was still dominated by long opening, of which 23.5% was opened empty by 25.2%. The strong upward trend of the futures price makes the technology turn. The Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) opens upward, and the high point of the futures price rises on the track. in the short term, the operation of the futures price is still strong, or further consider the high position of the main link before 6700, but be on guard against the trend of reaching a peak in stages.

Spot: & the sharp rise in nbsp; futures and cash prices in the two cities has led to some hedgers taking goods. On the one hand, considering the appropriate basis between futures and cash, on the other hand, high prices have suppressed the demand for real orders downstream. From a fundamental point of view, the weak demand of the terminal has become an indisputable fact, which is also the recent strengthening of commodities, but the main reason why PVC has not received too much attention is that it does not have better fundamentals like star varieties. However, we have been emphasizing that the third quarter is expected to come, and the price increases in the two cities have reached a position around 6500, so although there is still a good performance in the future, we should be on guard against turning to the market. The price upward mostly comes from the stimulation of the real estate sector, of which the lower limit of interest rates for the first home loan of 31 places has all been released! With the two notices issued by the Central Bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration on August 31, the stock mortgage interest rate officially ushered in a preliminary adjustment plan, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans across the country was also uniformly adjusted. The stimulation of the real estate sector led to the strengthening of prices in the two markets of PVC. In the short term, the spot market of PVC will still be strong, but be on guard against risks.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	9.1	9.4	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6390	6515	125
	Average spot price in East China	6255	6420	165
	Average spot price in South China	6320	6460	140
	PVC2401 basis difference	-135	-95	40
	V2405 collection	6421	6539	118
	V2401-2405 closed	-31	-24	7
	PP2401 collection	7851	7813	-38
	Plastic L2401 collection	8420	8385	-35
	V--PP basis difference	-1461	-1298	163
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2030	-1870	160

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 153.51, or 2.46%, to 6392.8 on Sept. 4. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6724.01, up 142.28, with a range of 2.162%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 331.21.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.1 warehouse receipt quantity	9.4 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	-	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	-	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	287	-	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	287	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,143	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,099	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,124	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	-	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	-	0
PVC subtotal		25,541	25,319	-222
Total		25,541	25,319	-222