PVC: The upward trend of the futures price is pushing towards the previous high, and the bullish sentiment has returned, but the position volume has not changed much, and the spot has strengthened.

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September 1, 2023, 4:14 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 1st V2401 contract opening price: 6269, highest price: 6399, lowest price: 6267, position: 675207, settlement price: 6340, yesterday settlement: 6288, up: 52, daily trading volume: 915061 lots, precipitated capital: 3.02 billion, capital inflow: 105 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.31	Price 9.1	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6100-6170	6130-6220	30/50	Send to cash remittance
East China	6150-6220	6230-6280	80/60	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6220-6300	6280-6360	60/60	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6050-6250	6100-6250	50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6230-6260	6260-6300	30/40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6000-6150	6050-6200	50/50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rise, and the increase is considerable. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 30-50 yuan / ton, East China 60-80 yuan / ton, South China 60 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50 yuan / ton, Central China 30-40 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 50 yuan / ton. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory price part of a small increase of 30-50 yuan / ton, most stable happened to be few contracts signed on Friday, and high-price inquiry is less willing to sign orders. The futures price continues to rise, the spot market traders push up the offer price, and the supply advantage of the spot price basically disappears after the futures price goes up, but there is still a basis offer and the basis does not change much. Among them, East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-70-110), South China 01 contract-(0-70), North 01 contract-(340-480), Southwest 01 contract-(260). The ethylene method is synchronously adjusted, but the merchants report that the pace of shipment is slow. On the whole, the price adjustment during the week is relatively frequent to face the situation of sharp rise and fall, and the transaction became weak after the price went up today.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night futures prices fluctuate in a narrow range, but the opening price is the lowest throughout the day. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose significantly and the increase was considerable. The afternoon peak of 6399 went straight to the previous high, but did not exceed it. The afternoon price is high and narrow. 2401 contracts range from 6267 to 6399 throughout the day, with a spread of 132. 01 contracts with an increase of 8377 positions and 675207 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6294, with 675207 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices end the volatility trend of night trading, there has been a high continued to rise, but the high point of the futures price did not exceed the previous high. In terms of trading, there was an obvious long sentiment in the market, in which the opening was 26.1% higher than the short opening 21.6%, but the volume increase was only 8377 hands, and some retail investors took profits under the high futures price. During the week, the market fell sharply and rose sharply, showing an obvious V-shaped trend, and returned strongly on Thursday and Friday after falling below the middle rail for two consecutive days. The technical turn shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) all turn to the upper opening, and there is a trend of turning to gold fork at the daily level of KD and MACD, but the current operation of futures prices has risen, but in the case of poor attention, we think that the upward range of futures prices is limited and observe the performance of the pressure range of 6400-6450.

Spot: first of all, the sharp rise and fall in prices in the two markets stems from less fundamental impact, more driven by commodity sentiment, recent commodity sentiment is on the high side, most commodities are strong, and PVC has followed the overall trend with obvious sharp fluctuations in the market. First of all, under the high futures price, on the one hand, spot merchants cooperate with the supply of goods for hedging suppression, on the other hand, the fundamentals do not clearly support the factors that the high price continues to rise, so there will be an obvious trend of volatility under the high price. The view we have been expressing is that there are still expectations in the third quarter, but there may still be a contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Therefore, in the current market, it is recommended to be treated with caution. On the outer disk, oil prices have risen sharply, as supply constraints will persist and there is a possibility of further deterioration. Market analysts said Saudi Arabia was expected to further extend its voluntary plan to cut production by an additional 1 million b / d to October, which would intensify OPEC + 's production cuts. On the whole, the spot price of PVC will continue to adjust frequently in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.31	9.1	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6246	6390	144
	Average spot price in East China	6185	6255	70
	Average spot price in South China	6260	6320	60
	PVC2401 basis difference	-61	-135	-74
	V2405 collection	6282	6421	139
	V2401-2405 closed	-36	-31	5
	PP2401 collection	7745	7851	106
	Plastic L2401 collection	8325	8420	95
	V--PP basis difference	-1499	-1461	38
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2079	-2030	49

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 52.72, or 0.852%, to 6239.29 on Sept. 1. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6581.73, up 7.17, the range is 0.109%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 342.44.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.31 warehouse orders	9.1 warehouse receipt quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	287	287	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	287	287	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,143	1,143	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,039	7,099	60
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,124	2,124	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,541	25,541	60
Total		25,541	25,541	60