PVC: Futures fell below the mid-track and were suppressed. This wave of market ended and the spot market weakened significantly

102,906

August 29, 2023, 4:15 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 29th V2401 contract opening price: 6261, highest price: 6271, lowest price: 6153, position: 655328, settlement price: 6211, yesterday settlement: 6321, down: 110, daily trading volume: 845993 lots, precipitated capital: 2.829 billion, capital outflow: 23.36 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.28	Price 8.29	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6160-6220	6060-6120	-100/-100	Send to cash remittance
East China	6170-6240	6050-6150	-120/-90	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6250-6320	6160-6230	-90/-90	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6100-6200	6000-6150	-100/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6210-6270	6110-6270	-100/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6000-6150	5950-6100	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price center of gravity has fallen, the spot market atmosphere has weakened. From the comparison of valuation, it fell by 100 yuan / ton in North China, 90-120 yuan / ton in East China, 90 yuan / ton in South China, 50-100 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 100 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory quotations of upstream production enterprises have been reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton. Including the synchronous downward price of the remote warehouse, the contract signing is mainly based on the basic quantity, and there is no large volume performance. Futures prices weakened again in intraday trading, spot market traders quoted prices lower than yesterday, some brands supply slightly higher prices. After the futures price goes down, the supply price advantage of point price is relatively more obvious, in which East China base offer 01 contract-(50-110), South China 01 contract-(0-70) good fan + 30, North 01 contract-(330-370-470), southwest 01 contract-(260), ethylene method is also reduced mainly. On the whole, there is a certain transaction performance at the low level of the point price, the downstream low price rigid demand replenishment, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved.

From the perspective of futures: PVC01 contract night futures prices maintain a volatile trend, the volatility range is relatively narrow and the direction is unknown. The futures price fluctuated all the way down after the start of the morning trading, and the afternoon low did not improve until the end of the day. 2401 contracts range from 6153 to 6271 throughout the day, with a spread of 118,02401 and an increase of 4614 positions, with 655328 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6090, with 39361 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC01 contract price all the way down the middle track support level, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening has changed, in which the lower rail to the lower middle rail also has a downward trend, and fell sharply for two consecutive days, making the daily level of KD line and MACD line dead cross trend more obvious, and the distance between the two lines expanded. With the emergence of commodity sentiment, although the market refreshed before the highest point of 6405, but the market reversal is also faster, high futures prices did not appear a certain horizontal trend, that is, began to fall sharply in a row. In terms of trading, the short opening of 25.1% is compared with an increase of 21.7%. In the short term, the operation of the futures price may continue to hover at a low level, and observe the performance near the support level 6100-6130.

Spot aspect: & the downward price of nbsp; futures in the two cities has led to an improvement in transaction today. From the spot level, rigid demand exists, but in view of the current market trend, the terminal real order mostly appears in the form of buying down rather than buying up, and is more inclined to low hanging order actual replenishment, so the transaction after the futures price decline is slightly better than the rising period. In addition, when the rising market is high before the year, speculative demand without a long-term upward trend can not be sustained, and both production enterprises and traders report that the pace of shipment is not good in the rising and falling market. In terms of PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices continue to rise separately, and the current cost port support exists, but the changes in the prices of the two markets are not guided by the fundamentals and are more inclined to fluctuate with the overall commodity trend. In the outer disk, the price of US crude oil futures rose, which will be supported by the tropical storm along the Gulf of Mexico, but the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further to curb the rise in oil prices. The chairman of the Federal Reserve / FED said further interest rate increases may be needed to cool inflation, which is still too high. On the whole, the spot price of PVC will still be weak and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.28	8.29th	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6261	6166	-95
	Average spot price in East China	6205	6100	-105
	Average spot price in South China	6285	6195	-90
	PVC2309 basis difference	-56	-66	-10
	V2401 collection	6297	6206	-91
	V2309-2401 closed	-36	-40	-4
	PP2309 collection	7628	7617	-11
	Plastic L2309 collection	8289	8233	-56
	V--PP basis difference	-1367	-1451	-84
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2028	-2067	-39

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 87.12, or 1.403%, to 6121.7 on Aug. 29. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6575.96, down 54.46, or 0.821%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 454.26.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.28 warehouse orders	8.29 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	231	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	231	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,074	1,143	69
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,263	7,443	180
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,124	2,124	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,640	25,889	249
Total		25,640	25,889	249