PVC: The futures price has exceeded the previous high, rising to the upper pressure level, and the spot price continues to rise at a high level.

110,196

August 23, 2023, 4:26 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 23rd V2401 contract opening price: 6310, highest price: 6391, lowest price: 6310, position: 646200, settlement price: 6352, yesterday settlement: 6247, up: 105, daily trading volume: 891570 lots, precipitated capital: 2.861 billion, capital inflow: 52.69 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.22	Price 8.23	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6050-6120	6180-6220	130/100	Send to cash remittance
East China	6120-6180	6230-6280	110/100	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6180-6250	6250-6350	70/100	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6000-6100	6100-6200	100/100	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6130-6170	6240-6300	110/130	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5990-6150	6090-6250	100/100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise, the spot market tends to be strong. Compared with the valuation, it rose 100-130 yuan / ton in North China, 100-110 yuan / ton in East China, 70-100 yuan / ton in South China, 100 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 110-130 yuan / ton in Central China, and 100 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises generally increase by 100-120 yuan / ton, individual increases by 50 yuan / ton, the price adjustment of production enterprises is relatively unified and the range is larger. After the futures price surpassed the previous high, the price offer of traders in the spot market in the morning was higher than that of yesterday, and the basis of the point price did not change much, but there was not much transaction under the high price for the time being, and there was no price advantage in the supply of spot price after the futures price went up. Ethylene production enterprises and traders also raised their quotations at the same time. On the whole, the spot market sentiment has improved, and the supply of some brands is tight and the price is slightly higher. However, the overall downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, wait-and-see intention is obvious, relatively contradict high prices, the spot market trading atmosphere is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night futures prices rose strongly high, once surpassed the main line before the high, but then the high price has fallen. After the start of morning trading, the futures price opened a long high concussion pattern throughout the day, and the afternoon price still runs in a narrow range until the end. 2401 contracts fluctuate in the range of 6310-6391 throughout the day, with a spread of 81. 01. The contract increased its position by 7763 hands, with 646200 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6255, with 78329 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The futures price of PVC2401 contract showed an obvious high upward trend, surpassing the previous high of 01 contract by 6372 and refreshing to a new high of 6391. The rapid upward trend of futures price was still caused by long opening, which was 23.8% higher than that of short opening, and the futures price rose through the upper track position of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2), but the high price was suppressed by the entry of empty orders. And the futures price before the high retail investors after a single profit-taking, the same day there was a multi-flat phenomenon. The technical level shows that the daily KD line shows a golden fork trend, the MACD turns to the golden fork, and the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt opens, but there is pressure and a certain empty force in the upper rail direction. Continue to observe the performance near the pressure level 6360 in the short term.

Spot: futures prices in the two markets rose strongly and adjusted by a large extent, and spot prices were also driven by futures prices, both production enterprises and traders rose sharply, but there was an obvious wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches of the real order under high prices. We have repeatedly mentioned in our previous point of view that there are still strong expectations in the third quarter, but according to the current upward trend, expectations are realized ahead of schedule or tend to consider gold, silver and silver. In the medium and long term, whether from the landing of the policy port or from foreign economic concerns, conflicts may break out in the fourth quarter if weak data cannot support expectations. In the short term, it is rumored in the spot market that the quotation of Yue driving products in Southeast Asia CFR is about US $820. the price of calcium carbide in other PVC fundamentals continues to rise, which forms a certain supporting role to the cost port. The rest of the level is not new, the overall commodity sentiment is strong at present, the spot price of PVC may continue to be high in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.22	8.23	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6284	6325	41
	Average spot price in East China	6150	6255	105
	Average spot price in South China	6215	6300	85
	PVC2309 basis difference	-134	-70	64
	V2401 collection	6312	6357	45
	V2309-2401 closed	-28	-32	-4
	PP2309 collection	7660	7645	-15
	Plastic L2309 collection	8384	8376	-8
	V--PP basis difference	-1376	-1320	56
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2100	-2051	49

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 103.75, or 1.69%, to 6241.32 on Aug. 23. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6618.24, up 19.95, or 0.287%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 376.92.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.22 warehouse orders	8.23 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	231	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	231	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,074	1,074	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	6,168	6,168	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,467	2,324	-143
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		24,888	24,745	-143
Total		24,888	24,745	-143