PVC: Futures Masukura is still obviously biased towards the long position, with a technical shift and frequent spot price adjustments

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August 22, 2023, 4:07 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 22nd V2401 contract opening price: 6272, highest price: 6285, lowest price: 6212, position: 638437, settlement price: 6247, yesterday settlement: 6249, down: 2, daily trading volume: 679216 lots, precipitated capital: 2.808 billion, capital inflow: 149 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.21	Price 8.22	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6050-6120	6050-6120	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	6150-6190	6120-6180	-30/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6180-6270	6180-6250	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6000-6100	6000-6100	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6130-6170	6130-6170	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5990-6150	5990-6150	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, general trading atmosphere. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 10-30 yuan / ton, South China is down 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. Most of the factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, and there is no obvious adjustment. Although there are few contracts signed in the first generation on Tuesday, the futures price performance is weaker, but the price is still hovering at a high level. The price range of traders in various regions is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the price offer in some areas is slightly lower than that of yesterday, and the high price is generally difficult to negotiate in a small part. Compared with the one-mouth price point, there is an advantage after the futures price goes down. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100), South China 01 contract-(20-70) good fan + (0-30), North 01 contract-(330-480), Southwest 01 contract-(200-260). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the wait-and-see intention is obvious, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2401 contract is high and low, and the night market is relatively down. After the start of morning trading, futures bottomed out after reaching a low of 6212. Futures prices returned to the upward trend, but the high did not break yesterday's high, afternoon prices in a narrow range of finishing late trading continued to pull up. 2401 contracts range from 6212 to 6285 throughout the day, with a spread of 73. 01 contracts with an increase of 33389 positions and 638437 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6219, with 101503 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices show a V-shaped trend, futures prices fall first and then rise, and the market is still bullish. From the trading trend, the opening is 26.7% higher than the short opening 23.5%. On the one hand, the long position to change the month, 09 contract is about to end, on the other hand, retail investors are much shorter. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) opens, the candle picture shows a positive pillar and shows a certain upward force. The daily KD line shows a golden fork trend, and the MACD dead fork trend narrows to a golden fork. We still maintain the previous view that there is still a strong trend in futures prices, but the range may be limited, and we will continue to observe the performance below the pressure level 6330.

Spot: & the continuous improvement of the two cities in the nbsp; period has not been continued today, but there is no weakness is still mainly adjusted within a narrow range. However, the spot market traders feedback that the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the transaction is relatively difficult under the high price, and the point price is also light, and the lower reaches tend to low replenishment. At present, there are not many fundamental variables in PVC, the start-up is stable, the demand is also like the early stage, and the change of social inventory is not obvious. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market fell slightly on the back of renewed concerns about the global economy and the outlook for global oil demand against a backdrop of high interest rates from central banks in Europe and the United States, and the recent rise in oil prices could encourage Saudi Arabia to slow down the pace of production cuts. Markets are waiting for the Fed chairman's speech at the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole on Friday. the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates high for longer, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting their highest level since 2007 to dampen risk appetite. On the whole, PVC is relatively sensitive to policy feedback in the third quarter, and it will still be high and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.21	8.22	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6278	6284	6
	Average spot price in East China	6170	6150	-20
	Average spot price in South China	6225	6215	-10
	PVC2309 basis difference	-108	-134	-26
	V2401 collection	6310	6312	2
	V2309-2401 closed	-32	-28	4
	PP2309 collection	7630	7660	30
	Plastic L2309 collection	8352	8384	32
	V--PP basis difference	-1352	-1376	-24
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2074	-2100	-26

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 8.17% to 6137.57, or 0.133% on Aug. 22. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 6599.29, up 0%, the range of 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 461.72.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.21 warehouse receipts	8.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	231	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	231	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,374	1,074	-300
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	6,168	6,168	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,031	1,531	-500
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,467	2,467	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,688	24,888	-800
Total		25,688	24,888	-800