PVC: The negative column of futures prices showed a late decline, but the 01 contract increased significantly, and the spot price was consolidated within a narrow range.

113,938

August 16, 2023, 4:13 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 16 V2309 contract opening price: 6067, highest price: 6109, lowest price: 6033, position: 309872, settlement price: 6073, yesterday settlement: 6056, up: 17, daily trading volume: 422525 lots, precipitated capital: 1.311 billion, capital outflow: 204 million.

V2401 contract opening price: 6099, highest price: 6125, lowest price: 6054, position: 516371, settlement price: 6090, yesterday settlement: 6097, down: 7, daily trading volume: 451768 lots, precipitated capital: 2.192 billion, capital inflow: 212 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.15	Price 8.16	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5920-6010	5920-6010	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5950-6000	5970-6040	20/40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6050-6160	6050-6140	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6000	5900-6000	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5970-6070	5970-6070	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5840-6000	5840-6000	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are weak and continue, the spot market trading is light. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is up 20-40 yuan / ton, South China is down 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price most choose stable price wait-and-see, individual flexible adjustment price, ethylene part of the reduction of 50 yuan / ton, but the contract is not enough. Futures prices are still weak and downward, traders have a poor mentality of quotation, a price offer is lower than yesterday, high offer is difficult to close, only some brands have a tight supply and the price is slightly higher. The point price supply has the price advantage, the basis does not change much compared with yesterday, basically biases in the 01 offer, the individual point 09 contract. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(80-100), South China 01 contract-(0-50) good fans + (20-50), North 01 contract-(350-480), Southwest 01 contract-(200). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, some wait and see temporarily, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night futures opened low and high once rose significantly in intraday trading. But the increase was small and then went down. Prices have been volatile since the start of morning trading, but prices weakened again in the afternoon and continued to fall in late trading. 2401 contracts fluctuate in the range of 6054-6125 throughout the day, with a price difference of 71. 01. The contract increased its position by 54089 hands, and has held 516371 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6045, with 309872 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price night performance is relatively strong, late afternoon decline, the operation of the price as we expected is still twining at a low level. However, the 01 contract showed a trend of substantial increase in positions, in which more than 27.3% of the opening was compared with 27.0% of empty entry, and so on. On the one hand, the change of positions and months of the 09 contract, the entry of hedging, on the other hand, there is still a certain multi-order expectation in the low price operation. The technical level shows that the opening of the lower rail in the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is obvious downward, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level tend to be dead-forked. At present, the overall commodity index is running low, and in the short term, 01 contracts will continue to run, observing the support around 6030 in January and the performance of the prefix of 09 contracts.

Spot aspect: first of all, there is no large guidance at the current macro level, and then there are not many variables from the fundamentals of PVC, and the fundamental factors currently have insufficient impact on the prices of the two cities in the PVC period, which can not play a traction role. For the current spot market sentiment, on the one hand, in the case of prevailing spot prices, traders have a greater demand for hedges, but based on the operation of the 01 contract at the current point, low hedging also has greater risks. We still believe that there are some upside expectations for the third quarter, but the range may be limited. However, for the long-term market, the high point of 2023 or doomed at the beginning of the year, in the absence of additional black swan events, it is difficult to reverse the weak situation. The poor performance of real estate data has always restricted the development of PVC terminal products. On the outside, international oil prices fell further as poor Chinese economic data added to the pressure on economic growth and concerns that the unexpected cut in key policy interest rates by the Chinese government would not be enough to support the recovery. On the whole, PVC spot prices will continue to be low and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.15	8.16	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6083	6045	-38
	Average spot price in East China	5975	6005	30
	Average spot price in South China	6105	6095	-10
	PVC2309 basis difference	-108	-40	68
	V2401 collection	6119	6065	-54
	V2309-2401 closed	-36	-20	16
	PP2309 collection	7418	7375	-43
	Plastic L2309 collection	8116	8074	-42
	V--PP basis difference	-1335	-1330	5
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2033	-2029	4

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 6.75% to 6007.42, or 0.112%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6534.17, down 21.01%, with a range of 0.321%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 526.75.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.15 warehouse orders	8.16 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	0	231	231
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	0	231	231
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,180	1,180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	6,156	6,156	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,031	2,031	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,467	2,467	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,251	25,482	231
Total		25,251	25,482	231