Lead: As a major energy consumer, China's methanol consumption has remained at a high level. In recent years, as methanol production capacity has been continuously released, output has also steadily increased. However, at the same time, downstream market demand has also continued to expand. Therefore, the gap in China's methanol supply will inevitably be supplemented by imports.

 From the perspective of imports, according to customs data, in the first half of 2023, China's cumulative total imports of methanol were approximately 6.7010 million tons, an increase of 693,800 tons from last year and a year-on-year increase of 11.55%. Among them, the month with the largest monthly import volume appeared in May, with monthly imports approximately 1.3776 million tons.

 In terms of importing countries, there are 28 methanol importers in China in the first half of 2023. Among them, the top five countries in terms of imports from January to June are Oman, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Iran, accounting for 24%, 17%, 13%, 12%, and 9% of the total imports respectively.

Iran is OPEC's fifth largest oil producer and the world's third largest natural gas producer (Only second to the United States and Russia), it has the world's huge proven oil and natural gas reserves, and is also the largest methanol producer except China. Due to the low overall consumption of downstream demand in the Middle East, most of the methanol produced in Iran is mainly exported and one of China's main sources of methanol imports. In 2022, China's total methanol imports from Iran will be approximately 2.1198 million tons, plus Iran's re-exports to China through other countries. China's imports of Iranian methanol are expected to reach 40% of its total production. As of June 2023, China's total imports of methanol from Iran are approximately 470,900 tons (excluding the amount re-exported to China from other countries).

In recent years, the number of new production capacity units in Iran has also gradually increased. So far, the total production capacity of units in Iran has reached 13.86 million tons. In the second half of the year, equipment will still be put into production in Iran. If it can be put into production as scheduled in the later period, China's supply of imports from Iran may continue to increase. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the operation of international units and the impact of winter production restrictions in Iran on China's imports.

From the perspective of exports, as of June 2023, China's total methanol exports totaled 63,200 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons compared with last year and a year-on-year decrease of 36.74%. Among them, the month with the largest monthly export volume occurred in June, with monthly exports approximately 29,600 tons.

In terms of exporting countries, in the first half of the year, China's methanol mainly exported to 23 countries. Among them, the top five exporting countries were Vietnam, with an export volume of 25,301.28 tons, accounting for 40% of the total exporting countries, followed China Taiwan 10,989.91 tons, accounting for about 17%, the Philippines with 7600 tons, accounting for about 12%, Malaysia with 5245 tons, accounting for about 8%, and Singapore with 5,002.28 tons, accounting for about 8%. Exports from other regions account for about 2%.