PVC: There is nothing new about the narrow fluctuations in futures prices. Is it dormant or a blow? Spot interval sorting

120,095

August 11, 2023, 4:26 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 11 V2309 contract opening price: 6138, highest price: 6175, lowest price: 6115, position: 423183, settlement price: 6147, yesterday settlement: 6185, down: 38, daily trading volume: 521943 lots, precipitated capital: 1.822 billion, capital outflow: 66.2 million.

V2401 contract opening price: 6202, highest price: 6226, lowest price: 6165, position: 400573, settlement price: 6197, yesterday settlement: 6234, down: 37, daily trading volume: 303982 lots, precipitated capital: 1.738 billion, capital inflow: 4689.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.10	Price 8.11	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5950-6070	5950-6070	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	6040-6090	6020-6080	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6150-6240	6130-6230	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6050	5900-6050	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6060-6120	6060-6120	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5900-6100	5900-6050	0/-50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment weakened. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 10-20 yuan / ton, South China is down 10-20 yuan / ton, Northeast and Central China is stable, and Southwest China is down 50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, with no obvious adjustment action, but there are few contracts signed on Friday. Futures price volatility fell, early in the morning traders during the price offer slightly lower than yesterday, the point price supply part has a slight advantage, the basis has little change compared with yesterday. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(120-150), South China 01 contract-(20-50) good fan + 20, North 01 contract-(350-400), Southwest 01 contract-(200). Ethylene process also synchronously reduced some of the sources of quotation. On the whole, the narrow adjustment of prices in the two cities did not drive the enthusiasm of downstream purchases, some wait and see temporarily, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is general.

Futures point of view: PVC2309 contract night futures price volatility is relatively narrow, the overall direction is not clear. After the start of morning trading, futures prices continued to fluctuate, but slightly lower in intraday trading, although afternoon prices rebounded, but the range was small, and there was nothing new about the price fluctuations throughout the day. 2309 contracts range from 6115 to 6175 throughout the day, with a spread of 60,009 and a reduction of 15230 positions, with 423183 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 6199, with 400573 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC09 contract price trend continues to change positions for the month, but today Friday 01 contract trend is insufficient, the overall increase of only 11245 hands is relatively inactive. As time goes by, 09 contracts may have only one week left from a trading point of view, so it is recommended that 09 contract positions be moved or closed as soon as possible. Today's overall futures price volatility is relatively narrow, 2401 contract technical level shows the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening, we have also repeatedly stressed that the narrowing trend may herald a new round of market. Daily-level KD and MACD continue to show a dead-end trend. Friday's closing line cross star, short-term price fluctuations may still be relatively narrow, take a further look at the support near 9 contract 6100 and 01 contract 6150.

Spot aspect: was first affected by Taiwan Formosa Plastics' quotation in the week, and the market basically came to an end on Friday. Overall, the increase in the price of Formosa Plastics was much better than expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, greatly benefiting Chinese manufacturers and foreign trade orders. During the week, export orders heard feedback from some enterprises. Domestic trade has also aroused the enthusiasm of inquiry for a time, but the actual transaction is always far from satisfactory. Merchants feedback that the pace of domestic trade shipments is still slow. At present, the narrow fluctuation of the two cities leads to a decline in the activity of the two cities. There are not many other variables in the fundamentals of PVC, and there is no major direction for the policy port. International oil prices closed lower on the outside, but Brent crude prices remained around January highs as speculation of another US interest rate hike receded after the inflation data and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) remained optimistic about the outlook for oil demand. On the whole, we still maintain the previous point of view, PVC short-term spot price fluctuations will be relatively narrow fluctuations.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.10	8.11	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6154	6152	-2
	Average spot price in East China	6065	6050	-15
	Average spot price in South China	6195	6180	-15
	PVC2309 basis difference	-89	-102	-13
	V2401 collection	6206	6199	-7
	V2309-2401 closed	-52	-47	5
	PP2309 collection	7400	7423	23
	Plastic L2309 collection	8177	8166	-11
	V--PP basis difference	-1246	-1271	-25
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2023	-2014	9

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 10.02, or 0.165%, to 6063.98 on Aug. 11. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6635.55, down 8.19, or 0.123%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 571.57.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.10 warehouse orders	8.11 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	360	360	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,562	2,562	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	880	1,180	300
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	4,245	5,004	759
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,821	2,031	210
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,467	2,467	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	260	260	0
PVC subtotal		22,149	23,418	1,269
Total		22,149	23,418	1,269