PVC: Futures prices continue to ferment and break through upward. The 01 contract has significantly increased positions, and the spot price has risen slightly.

118,235

August 9, 2023, 4:35 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 9 V2309 contract opening price: 6152, highest price: 6232, lowest price: 6120, position: 458531, settlement price: 6184, yesterday settlement: 6141, up: 43, daily trading volume: 632719 lots, precipitated capital: 1.999 billion, capital outflow: 117 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.8	Price 8.9	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5950-6050	6000-6120	50/70	Send to cash remittance
East China	6000-6070	6090-6150	90/80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6060-6200	6180-6270	120/70	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6050	5900-6050	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5980-6040	6060-6120	80/80	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5850-6000	5900-6100	50/100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, the spot market atmosphere is active. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 50-70 yuan / ton, East China 80-90 yuan / ton, South China 70-120 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China 80 yuan / ton, Southwest China 50-100 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises are mostly raised by 30-50 yuan / ton, including the simultaneous upward price of remote storage in East and South China, and 70-100 yuan / ton in radical enterprises and a few 3 / 8 enterprises. Futures prices continued to climb, driving the spot market atmosphere active, inquiry enthusiasm slightly increased, traders a price offer higher than yesterday, point price supply advantage weakened after the futures price upward, the basis has not changed much since yesterday's adjustment. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(150-170), South China 01 contract-(30-50), North 01 contract-(450-520), Southwest 01 contract-(280-300). The ethylene law has also been synchronously adjusted, the port foreign trade offer has been raised by 10-20 US dollars / ton, and the downstream purchasing part is temporarily waiting to be seen.

From the perspective of futures: PVC2309 contract night trading price fluctuation is not obvious, the overall trend of narrow operation, after the beginning of the morning session, the futures price has been significantly increased, the intraday high 6232 began to sort out after the high level, and the trend has not changed in the afternoon. 2309 contracts range from 6120 to 6232 throughout the day, with a spread of 11209.09 contracts reducing positions by 31166 hands, with 458531 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 6275, with 369014 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC09 contract futures prices continue to ferment the outer disk price increase this factor, while the cost port has a certain support. On the basis of yesterday, the operation of the futures price showed a trend of continuous breakthrough. In the current time period, the process of changing positions and changing months of 09-01 contracts has been accelerated. The number of positions in 01 contracts has increased by 35171, of which 26.3% have been opened empty. The continuous upward trend of the futures price reverses part of the trend line trend of the daily line level, in which the three-track opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) opens the trend, the distance between the daily line level KD and MACD lines narrows, and the operating high point of the futures price exceeds the middle rail position. In the short term, the operation of the futures price may still be on the strong side, but be on guard against the performance of the pressure above, and continue to observe around 01 contract 6300 near 09 contract 6250.

Spot: Taiwan Formosa Plastics of China's quotation impact is still in the market, resulting in prices in the two cities still have a small rise in follow-up, and strong operation, but the export quotation increase is not synchronized. It is learned from manufacturers and traders that yesterday's upward price led to an improvement in export orders, but the performance of domestic trade orders was relatively weak, Chinese merchants did not accept orders, and most of them still considered hedging at high prices. In terms of PVC fundamentals, the price of calcium carbide has generally increased by 50 yuan per ton. in addition, it has been heard that the government requires incomplete rectification in non-coal mines in Inner Mongolia, including limestone, but limestone accounts for less of the cost of calcium carbide, and many variables have not been heard at other levels. After consecutive days of upward adjustment in the two cities, in terms of current prices, too high prices may dampen some demand, and China's downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand. The constraints of the real estate sector can not be removed. On the whole, we still believe that the PVC spot market continues to fluctuate in a high and narrow range.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.8	8.9	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6172	6227	55
	Average spot price in East China	6035	6120	85
	Average spot price in South China	6130	6225	95
	PVC2309 basis difference	-137	-107	30
	V2401 collection	6222	6275	53
	V2309-2401 closed	-50	-48	2
	PP2309 collection	7346	7410	64
	Plastic L2309 collection	8115	8183	68
	V--PP basis difference	-1174	-1183	-9
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1943	-1956	-13

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 75.3% or 1.248% to 6107.39 on Aug. 9. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6636.04, up 97.98%, with a range of 1.499%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 528.65.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.8 warehouse orders	8.9 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	360	360	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,162	2,562	400
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	810	880	70
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	3,393	3,753	360
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,821	1,821	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,467	2,467	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	0	50	50
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	0	100	100
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	260	260	0
PVC subtotal		20,677	21,657	980
Total		20,677	21,657	980