Introduction: after nearly a month of pulling up in July, China's PTA market began to reduce its positions in PTA futures at the end of July, but international crude oil and upstream PX prices remained firm, and PTA processing fees continued to be compressed under high cost pressure.

Since July 7, PTA futures market began to rise, as of 31 PTA main contracts rose to 6148 yuan, a new high in nearly 4 months. The spot market of PTA rose from 5650 yuan / ton on the 6th to 6040 yuan / ton on the 31st, up 390 yuan / ton, or 6.90%. Since July 31, the PTA futures market began to fluctuate downwards, with bulls sharply reducing their positions.

While the international crude oil remains strong, the Asian economy and demand prospects are expected by the market, and the support brought by the atmosphere of OPEC+ production reduction still exists, and international oil prices continue to rise. Due to the tight supply of upstream PX and the continued support of US gasoline for Asian aromatics, Asian PX market prices continued to rise, to July 31, PX market closing price rose to 1102.33 US dollars / ton CFR China. The continuous rise of raw material prices has also brought greater cost pressure to PTA enterprises. Enterprise processing fees continue to be compressed. By the end of July, PTA processing fees have dropped to the lowest level of 83 yuan / ton, and the production loss of enterprises has increased.

From the PTA supply side, Hengli Petrochemical a 2.5 million-ton PTA production line overhauled on July 29th for a period of about 2 weeks. A 2.5 million-ton PTA unit of Dushan Energy was overhauled on July 23rd and restarted on August 1st. PTA corporate load will remain high, industry supply will be maintained. However, under the pressure of low processing fees, we should pay attention to the unplanned shutdown of PTA units in China in the later stage.

From the downstream demand side, the start-up of downstream polyester enterprises is still maintained at more than 90%, and there is no large production reduction or maintenance expectation in the short term, so the start of the industry will remain high. With the continuous rise of the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises increases, while the polyester market is dragged down by weak demand, and the market pull up resistance is greater, and the increase of polyester market is lower than that of raw material market. Therefore, the overall profit level of Chinese polyester enterprises has dropped. Since mid-July, the production of polyester bottle chips and polyester enterprises have been in a state of loss. The profit of polyester chips will also be near the profit and loss line at the end of the month. Up to now, the profit of polyester chip product is 3 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-97 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is-67 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber product profit is-12 yuan / ton.

Due to the deep influence of high temperature and off-season atmosphere, the start-up of the terminal weaving industry has declined slightly, the demand is expected to continue to weaken, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low, and the production and marketing of polyester enterprises is relatively light. At present, the market has not yet followed up a large number of autumn and winter orders, and the market is waiting for the gradual recovery of demand in late August.

Recently, PTA plant overhaul and restart coexist, the market supply will remain high, the market is still in the accumulation stage, the supply pressure is a drag on the market, while the downstream polyester load remains high, but under the influence of high temperature, terminal weaving continues to be slightly negative, suppressing the market mentality. International crude oil prices remain high, the PX market remains strong for the time being, and the cost side supports the market. It is expected that short-term PTA spot will be mainly high adjustment, the market downward space is limited. Pay attention to the promotion of international crude oil and market supply and demand to the market.