Methanol: Methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated China's trading atmosphere turned lighter
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July 27, 2023, 5:24 PM On July 27th, the methanol market price index was 2160.66, down 3.49 from yesterday, down 0.16% from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 26:
China's CFR ranges from US $260 to US $269 per ton, up by US $1 per ton.
European FOB 202.75-204.75 euros / ton, up 0.5 euros / ton
Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat
CFR in Southeast Asia was 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, down 3.50 US dollars / ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2000-2060 (- 20), Lunan: 2300 (20), Henan: 2210-2220 (10), Shanxi: 2160-2220 (10), Port: 22352250 (- 15)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 190-290 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-250 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the price fluctuation range of the spot market is 10-30 yuan / ton, the futures market is fluctuating, the spot gas of the port is light, many devices in the Chinese market are coming out one after another, and the market mentality has weakened. Downstream and traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the focus of transaction in some areas has been lowered. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2000-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, there are large-scale installations in the field, which affects the mentality of the operators, and the trade transfer price of some enterprises is reduced, and the transaction situation is poor. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, including 2300 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2280 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, trading on the market is slightly cautious, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is general, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Prices in North China have been raised in a narrow range, including 2160-2220 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2270-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, with the center of gravity of the market stable and manufacturers shipping at a reasonable price. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. During the month, rigid demand negotiations, the basis is slightly weaker; long-term unilateral high selling low suction, exchange and arbitrage negotiations are mostly, the basis stabilized, the monthly price difference widened. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 under deal: 2235-2250, base difference 09-20 picture15 position 8 transaction: 2245-2250, base difference 09-10 prime price 5 transaction 8 transaction price: 2255-2275, base difference 09-5 bot 9 transaction: 2275-2305, basis difference 09-25 swap 30.
|
Area |
2023/7/27 |
2023/7/26 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2160.66 |
2164.15 |
-3.49 |
|
Northwest |
2000-2120 |
2020-2120 |
-20/0 |
|
North China |
2160-2300 |
2150-2300 |
10/0 |
|
East China |
2235-2350 |
2250-2360 |
-15/-10 |
|
South China |
2240-2300 |
2230-2280 |
10/20 |
|
Southwest |
2140-2280 |
2140-2280 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2200-2500 |
2200-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2260-2350 |
2260-2320 |
0/30 |
|
Central China |
2210-2380 |
2200-2380 |
10/0 |
Future forecast: the recent macro aspect supports the methanol market, and the cost performance is mediocre. Methanol futures continue to rebound after shock consolidation, and the spot quotation is adjusted with the market. At present, the market mentality is slightly cautious. With the gradual return of the unit in the Chinese market, the supply has been restored. Near the end of the month, a number of units are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to increase in the field, while the overall downstream demand fluctuates little. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change and operation of the olefin unit in the field. In the port market, with the recent continuous increase in prices, the mood of downstream traders to receive goods is general, and most transactions maintain rigid demand. up to now, the total inventory in the port area has increased significantly, although the pick-up speed in the mainstream area is good, but the overall unloading speed is good, so the performance is tired. At present, the macro policy is good for the market, the improvement of demand is limited, the supply is expected to increase, the operators in the market have an obvious wait-and-see attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be arranged in a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/12 |
2023/7/21 |
Load lifting |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/23 |
Restarted |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023/7/12 |
Restarted |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Stop the car. |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Plan to restart |
|
Jiutai |
200 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/20 |
Load lifting |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Rebooting |
|
Henan Zhongxin |
35 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023/7/24 |
Half-load operation |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2022 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebei Jinshi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/6 |
2023/8/6 |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023 / July |
Plan to restart |
|
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/25 |
2023 / mid-August |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebi coalification |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/24 |
2023/7/26 |
Ignition restart |