Methanol: Futures market rebounded in a row and spot prices were sorted out at a high level
119,096 
July 26, 2023, 4:53 PM On July 26th, the methanol market price index was 2164.15, up 15.12 from yesterday and 0.70% higher than yesterday.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 25:
China's CFR ranges from US $259 to US $260 per ton, up US $3 per ton
European FOB 202.25-204.25 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton
Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2020-2060 (40), Lunan: 2280-2300 (0), Henan: 2200-2220 (40), Shanxi: 21502220 (40), Port: 22502275 (35)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 170-270 (10ax 10), South Route-North Shandong 210-290 (- 40 Universe 40), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-170 (- 20 pm 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 210-250 (- 10 Compay 20)
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is high, and the price volatility of the spot market is 20-40 yuan / ton. affected by the positive macro side, the futures market is highly volatile, the port basis is weak, the gas purchase is light, and the supply in the Chinese market has recovered. however, the inventory of some enterprises in the region is still low, the quotations of some manufacturers are rising, the prices of some manufacturers are rising, and the market sentiment is slightly different, and the wait-and-see mood is gradually rising. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the north line quotes 2020-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 40 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of some manufacturers in the field is tight, the ex-factory price is firm, the regional atmosphere has turned weak, and the transaction is general. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices remain stable, of which southern Shandong 2280-2300 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2260-2280 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market trading is slightly cautious, downstream enterprises wait and see, the transaction situation is general. Prices rose in North China, of which Shanxi quoted 2150-2220 yuan / ton, the low end raised 40 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2270-2300 yuan / ton, the low end increased 20 yuan / ton, the center of gravity of the market remained stable, and manufacturers shipped more at a reasonable price. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: methanol futures fluctuated widely today. Replenish goods on demand in recent months. Long-term unilateral high shipments are active, arbitrage buying is the main, the basis is weaker; a small amount of bargain buying in the afternoon. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 under deal: 2250-2275, base difference 09-17 swap: 2255-2265, base difference 09-10 picture8 deal: 2265-2270, base difference 09-5 hand 8 deal: 2245-2290, base difference 09-5 pound buy 0T9 deal: 2265-2310, basis difference 09 "20pm" 27.
|
Area |
2023/7/26 |
2023/7/25 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2164.15 |
2149.03 |
15.12 |
|
Northwest |
2020-2120 |
1980-2120 |
40/0 |
|
North China |
2150-2300 |
2110-2300 |
40/0 |
|
East China |
2250-2360 |
2215-2340 |
35/20 |
|
South China |
2230-2280 |
2210-2260 |
20/20 |
|
Southwest |
2140-2280 |
2140-2300 |
0/-20 |
|
Northeast China |
2200-2500 |
2200-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2260-2320 |
2260-2320 |
0/0 |
|
Central China |
2200-2380 |
2180-2380 |
20/0 |
Future forecast: cost: the recent coal price is weak and stable, the cost support is limited, the terminal inventory is maintained at a high level, the rigid demand for coal is mainly purchased, some coal mines lower their quotations and shipments, coupled with the decline in port prices, short-term coal prices fluctuate in a narrow range. On the supply side: with the return of local units and the timely release of products, the inventory of some enterprises in the field has increased, some units are still planned to restart at the end of July and early August, and the overall supply in China is still expected to increase. In addition, the port inventory is accumulated during the week, and the supply side continues to be bad for the market. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of methanol units in the field. In terms of demand: the profits of some enterprises in the traditional lower reaches have been repaired, and the demand is slowly increasing, but the overall demand is still not obvious, and the downloading of some olefin units downstream has led to a narrow reduction in MTO operating rate in the near future, which has an impact on olefin demand. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the load changes and operation of olefin units in the field. At present, the macro support of the methanol market is strong, and the performance of methanol fundamentals is poor. Under the multi-empty game, the operators in the market gradually have a wait-and-see mood for the future, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023/7/19 |
Stable operation |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/12 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Guohong |
64 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Yizhou science and technology |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/10 |
2023/7/19 |
Stable operation |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/12 |
2023/7/21 |
Load lifting |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/23 |
Restarted |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023/7/12 |
Restarted |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Stop the car. |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Plan to restart |
|
Jiutai |
200 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/20 |
Load lifting |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Rebooting |
|
Henan Zhongxin |
35 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023/7/24 |
Half-load operation |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2022 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebei Jinshi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/6 |
2023/8/6 |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/25 |
Restart failed and is still in parking state |
|
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/25 |
2023 / mid-August |
Parking maintenance |