Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously. The market transaction atmosphere is mixed
118,189 
July 25, 2023, 5:13 PM On July 25, the methanol market price index was 2149.03, up 26.26 from yesterday, up 1.24% from a month earlier.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 24:
China's CFR ranges from US $256 to US $258 per ton, down US $1 per ton
European FOB 201.25-203.25 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton
Us FOB 66-68 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (30), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 1980-2020 (70), Lunan: 2280 (30), Henan: 2180-2200 (20), Shanxi: 2110-2220 (20), Port: 22152235 (10)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 160-260 (- 10 ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-270 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged at a high level, supported by favorable macro conditions, the futures market fluctuates higher, the basis is weak, the port spot demand is rigid, and the purchase of gas is not good. Although there are many devices in the Chinese market, the inventory of some enterprises in the market is still on the low side, the supply of goods available to the consignors is less, and some manufacturers sell at a higher price, and the transaction is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the north line quotation is 1980-2020 yuan / ton, and the low end is increased by 70 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory of some manufacturers in the field is tight, the trade transfer price is relatively strong, the inquiry in the field is good, and the transaction is OK. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices have risen, including 2280 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2260-2280 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 70 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, trading on the market is slightly cautious, downstream enterprises wait and see, and the transaction is general. Today's market bidding price is around 2270-2280 yuan / ton, including Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding price of 2280 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical Industry 2280 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2270 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including 2110-2220 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. at present, the auction of some enterprises on the market is OK, and the market sentiment is relatively stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: methanol futures fluctuated upwards today. Spot demand is light. Long-term unilateral high shipments are active, arbitrage buying is dominant, and the basis is weaker. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2215-2235, base difference 09-15 Maximus 10, deal 7: 2215-2250, base difference 09-10 Melody 5, transaction 8: 2230-2245, base difference 09-10 Melody 5, transaction 8: 2225-2265, basis 09: 0Universe: 5Tracy 9, basis: 2265-2285, base difference 09: 25Compact 30.
|
Area |
2023/7/25 |
2023/7/24 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2149.03 |
2122.77 |
26.26 |
|
Northwest |
1980-2120 |
1910-2100 |
70/20 |
|
North China |
2110-2300 |
2090-2300 |
20/0 |
|
East China |
2215-2340 |
2205-2380 |
10/-40 |
|
South China |
2210-2260 |
2220-2300 |
-10/-40 |
|
Southwest |
2140-2300 |
2170-2300 |
-30/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2200-2500 |
2200-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2260-2320 |
2190-2300 |
70/20 |
|
Central China |
2180-2380 |
2160-2380 |
20/0 |
Future forecast: coal prices fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future, and the cost support is temporarily stable. With the return of the early maintenance equipment in the Chinese market, the supply area is expected to increase, but at present, the inventory of some enterprises in some areas is still on the low side. Some operators in the market still have high-price sentiment, and in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the follow-up implementation of the restart device in the field. From the demand side, the 1.8 million-ton methanol plant of China Coal has been produced. The supporting olefin units are not mined out for the time being, coupled with the shutdown and overhaul of some olefin units, the negative value of Luxi and Yangmei Hengtong MTO units is reduced to 60%, the downstream olefin demand is slightly general, and the traditional downstream overall demand is slowly increasing, but the overall demand has not improved obviously, and attention should be paid to the load change and operation of olefin units in the field in the later stage. At present, the macro outlook is good, the cost support is limited, the supply side is expected to be bad, the demand side is difficult to improve, the market operators' sentiment towards the future is gradually rising, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Load lifting |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023/7/19 |
Stable operation |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/12 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Guohong |
64 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Yizhou science and technology |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/10 |
2023/7/19 |
Stable operation |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/12 |
2023/7/21 |
Load lifting |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/23 |
Restarted |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023/7/12 |
Restarted |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Stop the car. |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Plan to restart |
|
Jiutai |
200 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/20 |
Rebooting |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Rebooting |
|
Henan Zhongxin |
35 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/25 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023/7/24 |
Half-load operation |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2022 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebei Jinshi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/6 |
2023/8/6 |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/25 |
Restart failed and is still in parking state |
|
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/25 |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 21 days |