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PVC: There was a second downward trend in the futures market, with relatively obvious open positions, and spot prices loosened in the afternoon

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July 24, 2023, 4:40 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格区间整理,午后现货价格有所松动。从估价对比来看:其中华北地区稳定,华东地区下跌10-40元/吨,华南地区低端价格上涨10元/吨,高端价格下跌20元/吨,东北地区稳定,华中地区下跌20-50元/吨,西南地区稳定。上游生产企业出厂报价基本维持稳定,部分下调30-50元/吨价格,但周一反馈一代合同签订不多。期价走势先强后弱,尤其午后时段尾盘期价下行明显,贸易商报价信心不足,上午时段多以区间整理为主,午后现货价格略降,但期价下行后点价货源略有优势,其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(150-200),华南地区09合约-(40-90),北方地区09合约-(450-580),西南地区09合约-(290- 310 ™™é / s / s, all of our thoughts during the whole process of banning the production hall.

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期货盘内出现自夜盘开始的二次下行,第一的上周五的夜盘时段,第二次为周一午后尾盘时段,盘面的增减仓状态来看,期价的争夺并不激烈。但依据持仓龙虎榜前20席位来看,部分机构增仓空单9789手,而多单仅仅增持89手。盘面空开的相对明显打压了期价走势。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)开口存收窄之意,上轨转向开口向下,期价的运行低点恰好在中轨位置。午盘收盘,中国期货主力合约跌多涨少,碳酸锂跌超4%,玻璃跌超3%,棕榈、菜油、豆油、豆一、焦煤跌超2%。目前的供需基本面变量仍旧不多,我们预计短期之内PVC期价回测中轨后或存进一步走弱的趋势,观察5870附近的支撑表现。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í é期货盘面的走弱并未在周一引发成交的好转,虽然贸易商点价报盘积极,低位挂单存在一定的成交,但整体的交投气氛改善不多,下游拿货并不积极。目前的供需层面仍旧是老生常谈的问题,高库存的制约使得期限两市压力较大。且自身基本面所提供的动向目前不足,期货在面临6字头上下期价的走势相对纠结,我们在前面也提到过,布林道趋势收窄的表现或是新的趋势的开始。期限两市在短期之内一定程度上走到了相对高位,对于需求端口来看,地产投资以及新开工存在弱势,使得终端制品的订单以及利润缩减,这并不利于PVC期限两市价格的反弹。另外对于政策端口,前期的预期存在消化完毕的迹象,若没有新的动能提供,料短期之内现货PVC价格将会面临一定的压力,但调整幅度将会趋窄。

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