[Hot Focus]: June's methanol rally was like a rainbow. Can the July rally continue?
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July 19, 2023, 5:24 PM Introduction: since mid-June, the methanol period has begun to take the upward route. Supported by the good macro mood and the synchronous fundamentals of methanol itself, the methanol period has shown a continuous upward trend, especially in mid-July. Methanol market has entered a stage of rapid rebound, and Chinese market quotations have also risen synchronously. As of July 19, the methanol price index was 2155.5, up 315.07 from 1840.43 on June 19. An increase of 17.12%.
From the cost point of view: the coal price has stabilized, and the cost has given some support to methanol. Recently, individual coal mines in the market have suspended production due to equipment maintenance, and the manufacturers' price-raising sentiment is obvious under the expectation of reduced supply. The daily consumption of the power plant has increased compared with the previous period, and the demand of the surrounding chemical industry and other end-users has been released, the demand side has improved, the coal mine inventory has been gradually digested, and the market quotation in the main producing areas has been steadily rising. There is a certain amount of support for the cost.
From the supply point of view: after entering July, some of China's early maintenance equipment restart expectations have not been fulfilled, and there are still some unexpected temporary shutdown devices, Jiutai failed to raise the burden as scheduled; Ningxia Kunpeng 600000 ton methanol plant originally planned to restart on July 14, now postponed; Gansu Huating 600000 ton methanol plant failed to restart Yanzhou Mining Guohong, Shaanxi Changqing and other parts of the device parking, the overall supply of the Chinese market is not large, coupled with the expected increase in MTO demand speculation mood is high, the futures market rose strongly, the market operators' mentality is good, the Chinese market quotation has been raised sharply. Then there are still plans to restart the plant, such as Inner Mongolia Elcometer, New Austria Phase I, Kunpeng, Jiutai, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., at that time, the supply will increase, and we need to pay close attention to the operation of the plant in the field.
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Summary of plans to restart the device this week (2023.07.17) |
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Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Load lifting |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023/7/19 |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/21 |
Stop the car. |
|
Henan Zhongxin |
35 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/22 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Plan to restart |
|
Jiutai |
200 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
It is expected that the maintenance time will last about 10 days. |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/12 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Guohong |
64 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/19 |
Restarted |
|
Total |
475 |
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Summary of recent equipment maintenance |
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|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
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Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2022 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/12 |
To be determined |
Temporary car bounce |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
To be determined |
Restart failed and is still in parking state |
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Total |
685 |
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On the demand side: Luxi MTO plant resumes restart after full-load operation, the northwest region of Shaanxi extends continuous external mining, and affected by the reduction of transport vehicles in some areas, the downstream return speed is slow, the terminal downstream manufacturer inventory pressure is not big, the demand side performance is OK, the traditional downstream market demand is also slowly increasing, but the improvement of overall methanol consumption is limited, in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to the downstream demand follow-up.
After entering this cycle, the turnover of methanol in the Chinese market was first weak and then strong. at the beginning of the week, the Chinese market quoted a regional correction, and after the new price was issued, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the futures market fluctuated under the cover of short sentiment. The cautious mood of the operators gradually rose, but on Tuesday, with the release of the positive side of the cost side, the futures market stopped falling and rose, and the price quotation in China's main producing areas was obviously supported by low inventories. The auction atmosphere in the surrounding area is good. At present, there is still good support in the macro aspect, the futures market is high and fluctuating, the Chinese market quotation is running firmly under the influence of little supply pressure, and the short-term methanol spot market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to whether the early parking device can be restarted as scheduled, and if it can restart as scheduled, the Chinese market quotation may fall narrowly under the influence of increased supply.