Methanol: Short-selling atmosphere hangs over methanol futures have been lowered widely
115,754 
July 17, 2023, 4:50 PM On July 17th, the market price index of methanol was 2139.88, which was 6.4 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.30% lower than the previous working day.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 14:
China CFR 258-265USD / ton, Ping
European FOB 197199 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton
Us FOB 68.75-69.25 cents per gallon, up 0.75 cents per gallon
CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2050-2080 (0), South: 1950-1970 (0), North: 2010-2040 (0), Lunan: 2300-2330 (0), Henan: 2150-2210 (- 80), Shanxi: 21202240 (0), Port: 22102260 (- 70)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 260-310 (20amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-170 (10mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-270 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the price fluctuation in the Chinese market is 20-80 yuan / ton, the futures market pulls back widely, the spot offer at the port is limited, the buying gas is general, and the equipment maintenance and restart are carried out alternately in the Chinese market. most of the operators in the market hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall negotiation mood is not good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 1950-1970 yuan / ton, the north line quotation 2010-2040, low-end stability, of which Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week's latest quotation raised 20 yuan / ton: 2000 tons quoted 2150 yuan / ton, 100 tons less than 2000 tons quoted 2160 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons plant on July 10 stop maintenance, expected time of 15-20 days or so, some traders turn order prices down, market operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, transaction is light. The price of the consumer market is weak, among which Lunan 2300-2330 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2290-2350 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, the mentality of market operators is strong, the current market supply is still tight, some downstream enterprises wait and see mainly. Prices in central China have been lowered, of which Henan is quoted at 2150-2210 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 80 yuan / ton. the auction turnover of some enterprises in the market is weak, the negotiation mood is low, and most of them hold a wait-and-see mentality. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2100-2250 yuan / ton in Sichuan and Chongqing, 2140-2230 yuan / ton in Yunnan-Guizhou region, low-end stability, parking of some devices in the field, little supply pressure, and traders mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude at the beginning of the week. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: methanol futures fell today. The spot offer is limited, the turnover is light, and the rigid demand of individual bulk orders. Long-term unilateral bargain receiving, selling arbitrage, the basis is slightly stronger. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 7: 2220-2260, basis 09-10, margin 09-10, margin 09-10, margin 10, transaction 8: 2235-2275, margin 09, 10, 15, 9: 2250, 2300, 09, 30, 35.
|
Area |
2023/7/17 |
2023/7/14 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2139.88 |
2146.28 |
-6.40 |
|
Northwest |
1950-2100 |
1950-2100 |
0/0 |
|
North China |
2120-2280 |
2120-2280 |
0/0 |
|
East China |
2210-2360 |
2280-2390 |
-70/-30 |
|
South China |
2230-2340 |
2250-2300 |
-20/40 |
|
Southwest |
2100-2250 |
2100-2250 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2200-2500 |
2200-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2290-2360 |
2290-2360 |
0/0 |
|
Central China |
2150-2480 |
2230-2480 |
-80/0 |
Future forecast: supply: at present, equipment overhaul and restart are carried out alternately, although Yanzhou Guohong, Gansu Huating and other devices are temporarily stopped, Jiutai and other devices failed to increase the burden as scheduled, resulting in a reduction in supply on the field. however, with the gradual recovery of Sino-Ann and other devices and the planned restart of Shaanxi Lean, Xinzhou Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia easy Advanced equipment, the supply and storage in the field is expected to increase. Demand: downstream olefin enterprises actively purchase, some olefin units are negative and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III MTO plant has production plans, olefin demand is expected to increase, MTBE, chloride and other demand is slowly recovering, in the later stage, attention should be paid to the load changes of olefin units in the field and the commissioning of new units. At present, in terms of cost, coal prices may operate weakly and stably under the premise of enhanced supply in the later stage, supply is expected to increase, demand is expected to recover slowly, and short-term methanol market prices are expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, the coal price and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Rebooting |
|
Yizhou science and technology |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/10 |
2023/7/17 |
Planned maintenance for a week or so |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023/7/19 |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/21 |
Stop the car. |
|
Henan Zhongxin |
35 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/22 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Plan to restart |
|
Jiutai |
200 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
It is expected that the maintenance time will last about 10 days. |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/12 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Parking |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Yanzhou Mining Guohong |
64 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / July |
Plan to park for 5-7 days |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2022 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/12 |
To be determined |
Temporary car bounce |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/7/7 |
To be determined |
Restart failed and is still in parking state |