Methanol: Futures fell slightly lower in China's trading atmosphere is still good
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July 13, 2023, 4:50 PM On July 13, the methanol market price index was 2140.92, up 8.24 from yesterday and 0.39 per cent higher than the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 12:
China CFR 258-265USD / ton, up US $1 / tonne
European FOB 195-197euro / ton, up 1 euro / ton
Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon
CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2050-2080 (0), South: 1950-1970 (0), North: 2010-2040 (60), Lunan: 2360 (80), Henan: 2210-2235 (0), Shanxi: 2120-2210 (0), Port: 22352245 (- 15)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 210-310 (0hammer 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-330 (0hammer 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, methanol market prices are strong, Chinese market price volatility is 10-30 yuan / ton, futures market volatility drops, port spot demand remains rigid, Chinese market atmosphere is deadlocked, supply recovery does not meet expectations, inventory pressure is not great, coupled with slow downstream demand boost, quotations in some areas are strong, but traders and downstream are cautious about receiving goods at high prices, and the transaction is slightly general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 1950-1970 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the north line quotation 2010-2040, low-end increase of 60 yuan / ton, the current inventory pressure is not great, some manufacturers auction transaction prices continue to rise, shipments are OK. The market price of consumer land has been raised along with it, including 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 60 yuan / ton in the low end, and 60 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. 2260-2280 yuan / ton, the low-end increase of 10 yuan / ton, the mentality of the market is strong, the current market supply is tight, the price is high and firm, the mentality of the industry is slightly cautious. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2100-2200 yuan / ton in Sichuan and Chongqing, 2140-2230 yuan / ton in Yunnan-Guizhou area, parking of some devices in the field, supply has been reduced, the rigid demand of terminal transaction is mainly, and the market negotiation mood is OK. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.
Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. In the morning, the unilateral choice of the machine is higher than the low pick-up, and as the futures fall, the basis holds slightly stronger; in the afternoon, the shipping offer is positive, the moderate price is closed, and the basis weakens. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: small order transaction: 2230-2240, basis 09-10 position 7 in transaction: 2245-2260, base difference 09-10 position 7 transaction: 2250-2275, base difference 09-10 position 8 transaction: 2260-2285, basis difference 09-15 pound 23-9 transaction: 2275-2285, basis difference 09-33 pm 35.
|
Area |
2023/7/13 |
2023/7/12 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2140.92 |
2132.68 |
8.24 |
|
Northwest |
1950-2100 |
1950-2080 |
0/20 |
|
North China |
2120-2280 |
2120-2250 |
0/30 |
|
East China |
2235-2360 |
2250-2360 |
-15/0 |
|
South China |
2230-2310 |
2230-2280 |
0/30 |
|
Southwest |
2100-2230 |
2100-2200 |
0/30 |
|
Northeast China |
2200-2500 |
2200-2500 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2260-2370 |
2250-2370 |
10/0 |
|
Central China |
2210-2480 |
2210-2480 |
0/0 |
Future forecast: with the recent release of favorable information from macro policies, and the recovery of market supply is not as expected, the supply side is good and the demand for olefins in the lower reaches is steadily rising, supporting some manufacturers' quotations to continue to rise, as manufacturers ship smoothly. At present, the overall inventory in the market remains low, the manufacturer's price-raising mood is obvious, and the market trading mood is OK. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the operation of methanol plant and olefin plant in the field. In the port market, the recent market rally, coupled with the tight supply, the spot prices are high and strong, the mentality of operators has weakened, the mood of receiving goods is general, and the transaction atmosphere is limited. At present, the macro and cost side support is good, coupled with the supply side is good to boost the market mentality, with the slow increase in demand, the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/13 |
2023 / mid-July |
Plan to restart |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Parking maintenance |
|
China-Angola alliance |
170 |
Coal |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/12 |
Restart |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / mid-July |
Plan to restart |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Yanzhou Mining Guohong |
64 |
Coal |
2023/7/13 |
2023 / lower middle and lower July |
Planned maintenance for 5-7 days |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/21 |
Stop the car. |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023 / July |
Planned maintenance for 1 month |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/11 |
2023/7/30 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Cathay Pacific |
40 |
Coal |
2023/6/22 |
2023 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / late July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance for 2 months |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |