Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously. China's market sentiment is weak
114,442 
July 7, 2023, 4:57 PM On July 7, the methanol market price index was 2005.38, up 5.93 from yesterday and 0.30 per cent higher than yesterday.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 6:
China CFR 245-250USD / ton, up US $2 / tonne
European FOB 193.5-195.5 euros / ton, flat
Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat
CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1940-1960 (0), South: 1860 (0), North: 1800-1850 (0), Lunan: 2120 (50), Henan: 2040-2060 (30), Shanxi: 1930-2050 (0), Port: 2155,2165 (25)
Freight:
Northern Route-Northern Shandong 210-320 (20ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-330 (10ax 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-170 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-240 (0max 40)
Spot market: today, methanol market price rebound in a narrow range, price volatility range of 10-50 yuan / ton, methanol futures shock rebound, port spot demand trading, transaction is OK, prices in some parts of the Chinese market have rebounded slightly, but supply-side pressure still exists, demand is difficult to improve, market atmosphere is still general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, with the quotation on the southern line around 1860 yuan / ton and the northern line on 1800-1850 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the restart of local devices has led to an increase in supply, the overall shipping situation of enterprises is not good, and inventory has risen somewhat. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Guanzhong market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1940-1960 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The market price of consumer land has been raised, including 2120 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 50 yuan / ton in the low end, 2080-2100 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 30 yuan / ton in the low end. Market prices in North China remain stable, Shanxi market quotes around 1930-2050 yuan / ton today, Hebei prices are quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market atmosphere is weak, maintaining rigid demand. The market price in southwest China is stable, the quotation of Yungui is around 2130-2200 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the negotiation is flat and the transaction is average; Sichuan and Chongqing 2100-2210 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the shippers are willing to ship, and the terminal rigid demand is to buy.
Port market: methanol futures fluctuated higher and then fell back today. Spot rigid demand buying and selling; shipments in recent months, contract buying cautious follow-up, weak basis; long-term unilateral higher than low, arbitrage buying-based, basis stable. The monthly change continues and the monthly difference increases. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 7: 2155-2165, basis 09-15 Mame10: 7 deal: 2160-2165, base difference 09-5 Melissa 3, deal 7: 2165-2190, base difference 09 / 9 / 8 / 13 / 8 transaction: 2170 / 2190, basis 09 / 10 / 15 / 15 / 9 / 9 / 10 / 15 / 9 / 9 / 10 / 10 / 15 / 9 / 9 / 10 / 10 / 15 / 9 / 10 / 10 / 15 / 9 / 10 / 10 / 15 / 10 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7, 09 / 10 / 10 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7, 09 / 5 / 10 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7,
|
Area |
2023/7/7 |
2023/7/6 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2005.38 |
1999.45 |
5.93 |
|
Northwest |
1800-1960 |
1800-1960 |
0/0 |
|
North China |
1930-2100 |
1930-2100 |
0/0 |
|
East China |
2155-2280 |
2130-2270 |
25/10 |
|
South China |
2140-2210 |
2130-2200 |
10/10 |
|
Southwest |
2100-2210 |
2100-2210 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2100-2450 |
2100-2450 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2080-2170 |
2050-2120 |
30/50 |
|
Central China |
2040-2320 |
2010-2330 |
30/-10 |
Future forecast: cost: coal prices are strong, cost support is temporarily stable, the recent high temperature weather has led to a rise in electricity demand, the market has warmed up, short-term coal prices may continue a narrow upward trend. In terms of supply: at present, the plant parking and restart are carried out alternately, some devices in the southwest are stopped or reduced, and the 600000-ton Hebi coal plant produces stable products. in addition, the methanol plants of Kunpeng, Zhongyuan Dahua, Yaxin and Shanxi are expected to restart in the near future, the supply has not been significantly reduced, and the expected pressure on the supply side still exists. On the demand side: the profit performance of traditional downstream enterprises is still poor, and the demand boost is limited in the off-season background. although the demand for methanol to olefins is slowly increasing, the overall demand improvement is limited. At present, the cost performance is good, the macro and fundamental performance is poor, the attitude of the industry is still cautious, hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the price of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia god Huaxilai peak |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/13 |
2023 / July |
Plan to restart |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Planned maintenance |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
To be determined |
Planned maintenance |
|
Xianyang oil |
10 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2022/7/2 |
2023/7/8 |
Plan to restart |
|
Hebi coalification |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/20 |
2023/7/5 |
Stable operation |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2020 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
China-Angola alliance |
170 |
Coal |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/13 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / July |
Plan to restart |
|
Yaxin, Shanxi |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/21 |
Stop the car. |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |