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[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (July 7)

115,733
July 7, 2023, 4:30 PM

Analysis of natural rubber market price on July 7

index

On July 7, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1355/ton, which was stable from the previous trading day.

market analysis

futures market

date

Previous period: RU Futures

main contract

closing price

opening price

Low-end price

High-end price

closing price

RU01

RU05

RU09

on July 7

12505

12405

12565

12460

13330

13250

12460

July 6

12200

12165

12500

12485

13390

13305

12485

rise and fall

305

240

65

-25

-60

-55

-25

 

date

Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)

NR main force

NR01

NR05

NR09

on July 7

9725

9850

10045

9725

July 6

9740

9860

10045

9740

rise and fall

-15

-10

0

-15

 

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Rainfall in foreign production areas has eased, and raw materials are in a state of high volume, but the output in some regions has increased slowly, and glue prices have increased within a narrow range.

China: China's production areas are basically in the stage of starting and increasing the volume. Recent rainfall in Yunnan production areas has been relatively frequent, which has a significant impact on rubber tapping operations, but the price of raw materials fluctuates little; Hainan production areas are in the stage of steadily increasing the volume, and the daily output is basically At around 4500.

price type

July 6

on July 7

rise and fall

units

raw material prices

Thailand

glue

43.4

43.4

0

baht/kg

cup glue

39.85

39.95

0.1

baht/kg

Yunnan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

10950

10950

0

Yuan/ton

rubber block

11000

11000

0

Yuan/ton

Hainan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

11100

11000

-100

Yuan/ton

Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)

11100

11000

-100

Yuan/ton

 

On the demand side: At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of enterprises to schedule production was still good. Most of the units were running smoothly. Some were appropriately adjusted according to the order situation within the month. At the beginning of the month, the company's shipment performance was average, and the overall inventory continued to grow slowly. In terms of the market, at the beginning of the month, some companies provided certain promotional policy support to the market, mostly targeting the best-selling specifications in the market. From the perspective of shipments, the shipment performance was not optimistic, and the overall performance was weak, with channels mainly digesting inventory.

Futures spot price list

price type

July 6

on July 7

rise and fall

units

price of finished products

Shandong

China All Latex

12200

12300

100

Yuan/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 standard glue

1355

1355

0

us dollars/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

10750

10730

-20

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Hainan

8150

8150

0

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk

9100

9100

0

Yuan/ton

the current price difference

Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

1735

1730

-5

Yuan/ton

Main force-China All Latex

285

160

-125

Yuan/ton

relevant exchange rate

us dollar against the RMB

7.2685

7.266

-0.0025

Yuan

Thai Baht to RMB

0.2136

0.213

-0.0006

Yuan

 

market outlook

Near the end of the week, under multiple stimuli such as "purchasing and storage","El Niño" and "macroeconomic market sentiment has warmed up", the rubber market has shown a significant upward trend. Judging from the supply and demand situation, the seasonal cutting volume of China's foreign producing areas rebounded in July, and China's producing areas entered a comprehensive up-to-date stage. However, the recent futures market has risen, which has pushed up the price of all latex to a certain extent, making the processing factory's All latex production enthusiasm has improved significantly, which in turn supports the relative strength of raw material prices; On the demand side, downstream tire start-ups have improved slightly, but actual market shipments have not yet fully recovered. The purchasing sentiment of processing plants is average. However, the entire supply and demand side still has good support in the short term, but global volume expectations are strong and we are cautious.