Methanol: The methanol market is weak and the transaction atmosphere is poor
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July 6, 2023, 5:09 PM On July 6th, the market price index of methanol was 1999.45, down 7.6% from yesterday and up 0.38% from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 5:
China CFR 243,250USD / ton, down US $3.00 / tonne
European FOB 193.5-195.5 euros / ton, up 12.50 euros / ton
Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 288-290 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1940-1960 (0), South: 1860 (0), North: 1800-1850 (- 20), Lunan: 2070-2080 (- 30), Henan: 2010-2030 (- 10), Shanxi: 1930-2030 (- 30), Port: 21302140 (5)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 190-300 (10ax 10), South Line-North Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-200 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, and the range of price fluctuation 5-30 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the port spot demand is negotiated, the supply side of the Chinese market continues to increase, while part of the downstream demand is always limited, the mindset of the operators is empty, and the trading atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, and the quotation on the central and southern line is around 1860 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line is quoted at 1800-1850 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the mentality on the market is weak, and some manufacturers have lowered their quotations for shipment. on the other hand, the tight supply in Xinjiang supports enterprises to sell at a high price, and the deal is OK, and we still need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Guanzhong market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1940-1960 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market prices fell, of which southern Shandong quoted 2070-2080 yuan / ton, low-end down 30 yuan / ton, northern Shandong quoted price 2050-2080 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, the current market operators wait and see, receiving goods cautiously. The market price in North China is stable and small. Today, the market price in Shanxi region is around 1930-2050 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. The current market atmosphere is weak and rigid demand is maintained. The market price in southwest China is stable, the quotation of Yungui is around 2130-2200 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the negotiation is flat and the transaction is average; Sichuan and Chongqing 2100-2210 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the shippers are willing to ship, and the terminal rigid demand is purchased.
Port market: today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. Spot a small amount of rigid demand; long-term high delivery, buying arbitrage-based, the basis is weak, the price center of gravity moves up with the futures. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2135-2145, basis 09-10 pictures5 pictures7 deal: 2140-2150, base difference 09-5 Universe 10 transaction 8 transaction: 2155-2165, base difference 09-5 pound 10 swap 15.
|
Area |
2023/7/6 |
2023/7/5 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
1999.45 |
2007.05 |
-7.60 |
|
Northwest |
1800-1960 |
1820-1960 |
-20/0 |
|
North China |
1930-2100 |
1960-2100 |
-30/0 |
|
East China |
2130-2270 |
2125-2240 |
5/30 |
|
South China |
2130-2200 |
2130-2210 |
0/-10 |
|
Southwest |
2100-2210 |
2100-2210 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2100-2450 |
2100-2450 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2050-2120 |
2070-2120 |
-20/0 |
|
Central China |
2010-2330 |
2020-2350 |
-10/-20 |
Future forecast: coal prices continue to rise in the near future, and the cost is supported. According to the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, the supply in southwest China continues to reduce due to the power-limited parking of some devices, but the ignition of 600000-ton Hebi coal-fired plant is restarted. In addition, some units in northwest and central China are planned to restart in the near future, the overall supply in the field is expected to increase, while from the demand side, although the downstream olefin demand has recovered somewhat. However, under the background of the off-season, the demand performance of some traditional downstream industries continues to be weak, the purchasing mood of downstream traders is weak, and the overall demand shows no obvious signs of picking up for the time being. At present, there is no favorable support in the macro side for the time being, the cost support is temporarily stable, the performance of the fundamentals is poor, the mentality of the operators is still cautious, they hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and the short-term methanol market price or narrow range is expected. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia god Huaxilai peak |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/13 |
2023 / July |
Plan to restart |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Jiutai new material |
200 |
Coal |
2022/12/28 |
2023/6/16 |
Stable operation |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Planned maintenance |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
To be determined |
Planned maintenance |
|
Xianyang oil |
10 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebi coalification |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/20 |
2023/7/5 |
Ignition restart |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2020 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
China-Angola alliance |
170 |
Coal |
2023/6/30 |
2023/7/13 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / July |
Plan to restart |
|
Shanghai Huayi |
100 |
Coal |
2023/6/15 |
2023/7/3 |
Restart |
|
Yaxin, Shanxi |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Yangmei Fengxi |
10 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/21 |
Stop the car. |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Power-limited parking |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Power-limited parking |