Methanol: The current trend of methanol is different in the current period. China's transaction atmosphere is general
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July 4, 2023, 5:04 PM On July 4th, the methanol market price index was 1992.09, up 0.1 from yesterday, or 0.01% higher than yesterday.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on July 3:
China CFR 247-252 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton
European FOB 203.75-205.75 euros / ton, flat
Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 289-291 US dollars / ton, up 0.50 US dollars / ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1940-1960 (- 40), South: 1760-1770 (0), North: 1820-1870 (- 30), Lunan: 2120 (20), Henan: 2020-2055 (- 10), Shanxi: 1930-2055 (- 10), Port: 21602175 (0)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 190-280 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-160 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-190 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price range of methanol market is sorted out, the range of price fluctuation Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, and the quotation on the central and southern line revolves around 1760-1770 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the price on the north line is 1820-1870 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, some of the devices in the field have been restarted and steadily shipped, the supply has increased, the market mentality is not good for the time being, and the trading atmosphere is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Guanzhong region market prices down, today's market quotation around 1940-1960 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 40 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market prices remain stable, of which southern Shandong quotes 2120 yuan / ton, the low end increases 20 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong quotes 2080-2100 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. At present, the operators in the market wait and see and receive goods cautiously. Today's market bidding price revolves around 2040-2090. / ton, including 2070 yuan / ton for Dongfang Hualong methanol, 2090 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry, 2080 yuan / ton for Lihuayi, 2077 yuan / ton for Dongying Hualian, and 2040 yuan / ton for Shandong Sheng. The market price in North China has been partially reduced. The market price in Shanxi is quoted around 1930-2050 yuan / ton today, and the low-end price is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. Hebei price is quoted at 2020-2060 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. The current market atmosphere is general and rigid demand is maintained. Market prices in southwest China have risen widely, with Yungui quotation around 2140-2190 yuan / ton, low-end price increase of 110yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price increase of 2120-2210 yuan / ton, and low-end increase of 150yuan / ton. at present, the parking of some devices affected by limited electricity in the field has been reduced, and the market supply has been reduced. Operators have a strong mood to wait and see in the future.
Port market: methanol futures volatility is slightly weaker today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand; forward part of the high shipments, arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis is weak. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2150-2160, base difference 09: 0
7 deal: 2155-2165, basis 09: 2170, basis: 2165-2170, basis: 09: 17, margin: 2170-2185, basis: 2170-2190, basis: 09: 17: 20.
|
Area |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/3 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
1992.09 |
1991.99 |
0.10 |
|
Northwest |
1760-1960 |
1760-2000 |
0/-40 |
|
North China |
1930-2060 |
1940-2060 |
-10/0 |
|
East China |
2160-2270 |
2160-2250 |
0/20 |
|
South China |
2140-2220 |
2140-2220 |
0/0 |
|
Southwest |
2120-2210 |
1970-2120 |
150/90 |
|
Northeast China |
2000-2450 |
2000-2450 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2080-2160 |
2080-2160 |
0/0 |
|
Central China |
2020-2350 |
2030-2310 |
-10/40 |
Future forecast: on the supply side: recently, affected by high temperature weather, devices such as Chongqing Cabelle and Sichuan Lutianhua in Southwest China have been stopped one after another, but the early maintenance devices such as Jiutai and Yulin Coal Chemical in Northwest China have returned and stabilized the products, and the market supply has not obviously shrunk. In addition, there are still plans to restart the devices in China, and the supply or storage is expected to continue to increase. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the implementation of the plant restart and the impact of the power restriction policy in the southwest on the plant in the field. Demand: downstream olefin demand has recovered, extended 600000 tons of coal, Shenhua Xinjiang 680000 tons of olefin units are planned to restart in the near future, demand is expected to increase, but the traditional downstream continued weak performance in the off-season, the overall demand boost is still limited. At present, the support of coal prices on the cost side is temporarily stable, the supply side continues to increase, the demand side recovers slowly, the mindset of operators is still cautious, they hold a wait-and-see mood towards the future, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be narrowly arranged. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia god Huaxilai peak |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/13 |
To be determined |
Temporary Parking |
|
Inner Mongolia Yigao |
30 |
Coal |
2023/6/23 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shilin |
30 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
2023 / September |
Planned maintenance |
|
The first phase of New Olympic Games in Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/7/4 |
2023/7/24 |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of Xinao, Inner Mongolia |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / August |
2023 / mid-August |
Planned maintenance for 20 days |
|
Jiutai new material |
200 |
Coal |
2022/12/28 |
2023/6/16 |
Stable operation |
|
Huangling, Shaanxi Province |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/25 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi Shenmu |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / end of July |
2023 / August |
Planned maintenance for 15 days |
|
Shaanxi Lean |
26 |
Coal |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/16 |
Planned maintenance |
|
Shaanxi evergreen |
60 |
Coal |
2023 / July |
To be determined |
Planned maintenance |
|
Xianyang oil |
10 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/21 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hebi coalification |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/20 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Henan heart to heart |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/28 |
2020 / end of July |
Parking maintenance |
|
China-Angola alliance |
170 |
Coal |
2023/6/30 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / end of June |
Plan to restart |
|
Shanghai Huayi |
100 |
Coal |
2023/6/15 |
2023/7/3 |
Rebooting |
|
Yaxin, Shanxi |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/7/1 |
2023/7/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Sichuan Lutianhua |
40 |
Natural gas |
2023/6/30 |
To be determined |
Power-limited parking |
|
Chongqing Cabelle |
85 |
Natural gas |
2023/7/4 |
To be determined |
Power-limited parking |